Islamabad:Dr Zaheer Ahmad Babar, Chief Meteorologist, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), has said that Pakistan is likely to experience above-normal temperatures this year and noted a decade-long trend of below-normal snowfall in northern regions.
Dr Babar was speaking at a seminar on “Monsoon outlook 2026 and need for timely action” organised here by Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).
Dr Babar said rainfall during the month of March was above normal though the Punjab recorded below-average precipitation. The interaction between the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) would determine the timing and intensity of the monsoon, he said, adding that seasonal precipitation is expected to remain normal to slightly above normal.
He cautioned that below-normal rainfall did not rule out extreme weather events. He also warned that eastern rivers on the Indian side are already filled, which could pose risks if heavy rains occur.
Dr Shafqat Munir, Deputy Executive Director, SDPI, said that Pakistan experienced an erratic monsoon last year and lessons should guide early preventive measures to minimise risks and damages during the upcoming season.
Brig. Kamran, the Member Operations, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), highlighted that the NDMA Act 2010 mandates the authority to coordinate national disaster preparedness and response across federal, provincial, and district levels. He emphasised that most monsoon-related deaths occurred due to flash floods, house collapses and electrocution incidents which are risks that could be reduced by up to 80 per cent through better drainage systems, enforcement of building codes, removal of encroachments and improved urban planning.
PMD expert Dr Furrukh Bashir highlighted declining snowfall in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region and said Pakistan is increasingly witnessing a direct transition from winter to summer with almost no spring season. He noted that glaciers remain highly sensitive to climate change and that rising temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan are increasing risks to both infrastructure and communities.
Dr Tayyab, Executive Director (Tech), NDMA, said strong El Niño conditions are likely to suppress rainfall in South Asia, but increase localised extreme weather events and episodic monsoon bursts. He warned that several indicators point to a higher probability of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) this year.
Raza Iqbal, Member, NDMA, said the authority acted as a force multiplier for the government during the 2025 floods and is engaging the private sector through corporate social responsibility initiatives to strengthen disaster response capacity.
