MULTAN: Rainfall in the closing days of March is expected to have a significant impact on wheat crops as the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast a fresh spell of rain across Punjab.
According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre, wheat-growing districts - particularly in South Punjab - are likely to experience rain, thunderstorms, and isolated hailstorms from the evening or night of March 24 through March 30.
A Met Office alert states that a western disturbance is expected to enter southwestern Balochistan on March 24 and intensify from the night of March 27, persisting until March 30.
Key wheat-producing districts, including Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, Bhakkar, Layyah, Multan, Kot Addu, Bahawalpur, Sahiwal, Bahawalnagar, and Rahim Yar Khan, are likely to receive intermittent rainfall between March 26 and March 30.
Pakistan Kisan Committee (PKC) Secretary General Iqbal Malik said that light to moderate rainfall during late March generally benefits wheat crops by supporting grain filling and improving yields through lower temperatures.
However, he cautioned that strong winds could cause lodging (bending of crops), especially in fields nearing maturity.
The Met Office has also forecast a temperature drop of 2-3°C following the rains, which experts say will help reduce heat stress - a factor that can otherwise affect grain size and pollination.
Iqbal Malik noted that the rainfall would provide essential moisture during the critical ripening stage and reduce farmers’ reliance on tube-well irrigation, thereby lowering costs amid rising diesel prices.
However, excessive rainfall could delay harvesting and, combined with gusty winds, increase the risk of crop damage.
Recent temperature trends in key wheat-growing divisions-Multan, Bahawalpur, and Dera Ghazi Khan-show a rise in heat levels, making the expected rains crucial to prevent moisture stress.
Still, experts warn that strong winds remain a concern. He further observed that timely moderate rainfall helps maintain soil moisture in central Punjab districts such as Faisalabad, Sahiwal, and Okara, supporting healthy grain development.
However, late-March rains may increase the risk of lodging, potentially causing 10-15 percent crop losses.
Additionally, increased humidity can encourage diseases and pests, including yellow rust, aphids, and pink stem borer, which may reduce yields by 20-80 percent in severe cases.
Explaining the threat of yellow rust, Malik described it as a destructive fungal disease that forms yellow-orange stripe-like pustules on leaves, reducing photosynthesis and significantly affecting yield. In favorable cool and moist conditions, the disease can cause losses of up to 70 percent. It also weakens plant growth, reduces grain quality, and increases vulnerability to drought.
The Punjab Agriculture Department’s Extension Wing has advised farmers to monitor fields regularly and apply fungicides immediately if symptoms appear. Growers are encouraged to use resistant wheat varieties and avoid older, more susceptible ones. Officials recommend sowing wheat in November or early December to reduce infection risk and stress the importance of timely fungicide application. Farmers are also advised to inspect crops from late December onward, particularly in areas with higher humidity, such as near trees.
Symptoms of yellow rust include small yellow spots arranged in parallel stripes on leaves, which may turn black in severe cases by late March. If the disease affects flag leaves-the top leaves crucial for grain filling-the resulting damage to yield can be severe. Authorities have urged farmers to remain vigilant and consult agricultural experts immediately if signs of disease emerge.
