Pakistan can monetise its ‘command clarity’ for more than $50 billion. Pakistan’s total national wealth would likely fall in the $3 trillion to $5 trillion range. Assets only command full value when three conditions are met: contracts are reliably enforceable, cash flows are predictable and security risks are bounded. Pakistan possesses abundant assets; markets simply discount them heavily due to perceived governance weaknesses.
Pakistan can monetise its ‘command clarity’ for more than $50 billion. This is straightforward arithmetic: Egypt raised more than $20 billion on far weaker balance sheets. Pakistan’s balance sheet can attract three times more. The deep discount at which Pakistan’s assets trade reflects governance risks, not a scarcity of resources.
Pakistan does not need new assets. Pakistan does not need new laws. Pakistan does not need new slogans. What Pakistan needs is a single, credible chain of command that markets can trust. What Pakistan needs is an institutional anchor capable of delivering three things: continuity, enforceability and predictability across political cycles.
Minerals-to-money: more than $15 billion. Our geology has copper. Our geology has gold. Our geology has antimony and our geology has rare earth elements (REEs). Here’s the issue: investors do not fund geology; they fund enforceable contracts.
Asset monetisation: more than $10 billion. Pakistan has assets: airports, ports, pipelines. Transmission and SOEs.
Risk repricing: more than $10 billion. PIA has been privatised; when one tough decision holds, markets extrapolate discipline. Lower Credit Default Swap (CDS), higher equity multiples, less FX hoarding. The result: tighter Credit Default Swap spreads, higher equity multiples and reduced foreign-exchange hoarding.
Sovereign co-investment platforms: more than $10 billion. Food, fertilisers and logistics. Remember, platforms scale, projects don’t.
Minority equity: more than $5 billion. Minority equity in Askari Bank Limited, Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited and Fauji Cement Company Limited. No loss of control; re-rating driven by governance certainty, not growth hype.
Command clarity is not unique. It has been monetised by Egypt (attracting over $20 billion through asset sales and Gulf investments); Vietnam (drawing $20 billion in annual FDI on the back of institutional stability); Rwanda (commanding premium valuations across sectors); Kazakhstan (leveraging disciplined resource governance in oil, gas, and mining); and Azerbaijan (mastering pipeline diplomacy to secure strategic energy premiums).
In late 1978, at the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the party-state imposed unambiguous command over three areas: land, credit and judicial outcomes. What followed was the largest capital mobilisation in human history.
It is time for Pakistan to convert enforceability into bankability. Three things must align: authority, responsibility and accountability – when they do, capital taps open wide. Remember, investors don’t fear risk but confusion.
Pakistan’s deep discount is not geological or demographic. It is institutional. Once authority, responsibility and accountability align, Pakistan’s assets – minerals, infrastructure, platforms – can be repriced quickly. Remember, capital does not wait for perfection; it waits for orders that stick.
Command clarity is not a concept but a balance-sheet event. Command clarity is not a slogan; it moves capital. Pakistani assets are extremely valuable; weak governance is grossly mispricing them.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. He tweets/posts @saleemfarrukh and can be reached at: [email protected]
