If stories doing the rounds in the media are to be believed, the government is planning to get the constitution amended to create new provinces. The call to add to the four provinces that constitute the federation of Pakistan is fairly long-standing. Its source is not a single political party but several. However, most of those parties have been selective in asking for putting in place new provinces, supporting the demand in one instance and opposing it in another.
Of all the mainstream political parties, only the MQM has consistently been comfortable with the creation of new provinces all over the country, provided urban Sindh, particularly Karachi – the party’s power base – is made into a new province. The PPP, however, has been dead set against any proposal that could divide Sindh, the party’s power base.
A new province may be created for more than one reason. Administrative efficiency may warrant a new federating unit, as an existing province may be too large to govern effectively. The need to ensure a neglected ethnic group has adequate representation in the state’s political and bureaucratic machinery may be another reason. Disproportionate levels of development across the regions that make up a province may provide adequate justification for dividing one or more provinces. Or one or a couple of adjoining cities may be large enough to qualify for a separate province.
In neighbouring India, new provinces (called states) have been set up mainly on ethnic or linguistic basis. In 1953, Andhra state (later renamed Andhra Pradesh) was created from Telugu-speaking districts of Madras (later renamed Tamil Nadu). In 1960, Bombay was split into the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. In 1966, the new state of Haryana was carved out from Punjab. All those new states were set up in response to vibrant popular movements.
In Pakistan, the four existing provinces are based on ethnicity or language. Unlike India, in Pakistan, there’s no public movement worth mentioning for creating new provinces on a linguistic or ethnic basis. Yes, the MQM wants the megacity of Karachi to be made a separate province on a linguistic basis. Some parties, notably the PPP, want the creation of the Southern Punjab province, while others demand that two new provinces be carved out of Southern Punjab, with Multan and Bahawalpur as provincial capitals.
That said, such demands for creating new provinces on ethnic or linguistic bases are more political than popular. On the whole, the major parties support carving out more federating units in the provinces where they stand to gain, but oppose it where they fear losing political capital.
There’s no harm in creating new provinces provided objective criteria are applied. One criterion may be administrative efficiency. Existing provinces, it may be argued, will be more effectively governed if they’re split into smaller provinces. But are the four provinces too populous to be managed effectively?
According to the Population and Housing Census, 2023, the population of the four provinces is as follows: Punjab (127.69 million), Sindh (55.70 million), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (40.86 million), and Balochistan (14.89 million). We may compare this with the population of India’s five largest states in 2023: Uttar Pradesh (236.68 million), Bihar (126.75 million), Maharashtra (126.38 million), West Bengal (99.08 million) and Madhya Pradesh (86.58 million).
The administrative system in India and Pakistan is fairly similar, being a relic of British colonialism. Then why is Punjab, Pakistan’s most populated province, which is much smaller than UP, considered too large to administer efficiently?
Would carving out new provinces promote the development of relatively less developed regions, such as southern Punjab? The answer lies in examining the advantages of being a province. Provinces have constitutionally protected legislative, administrative, and financial autonomy; sub-provincial regions don’t have. The National Finance Commission (NFC) Award is distributed province-wise. Spending from the NFC Award is the discretion of each provincial government. It may spend the bulk of the resources in one part of the province at the expense of the rest. As resources are key to development, the creation of new provinces will free up resources for the region's development upon provincial status.
If the need for development is to serve as the basis for creating new provinces, the question arises: which criterion may be used to establish new provinces? Three possible objective criteria are: socio-economic indicators, population, and area. Of these, socio-economic indicators – such as poverty, infrastructure, per capita income, economic size and growth, level of industrialisation, unemployment rate and education and health services – are the most relevant, if development is to be the basis of creating new provinces. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, credible socio-economic indicators are available only at the national level, and only in some cases on the provincial level. However, such indicators aren’t available at the regional or divisional level across the board.
This virtually rules out making socio-economic indicators, despite their overwhelming importance, the criterion for carving out new provinces. Thus, we are left with the other two indicators: population and area. Of the two, population seems more relevant because development must cater to the needs of the people. The greater the number of people, the greater the population’s needs.
Currently, Pakistan consists of 32 divisions. Of these, 10 are in Punjab, eight in Balochistan, seven in KP, and six in Sindh. Islamabad, the capital territory (ICT), is also a division. One option is that, apart from the ICT, each of the 31 divisions may be given provincial status. In that event, each new province will be constitutionally guaranteed autonomy and development resources. However, using such an option will entail exorbitant administrative costs, as each new province will have its own governor, chief minister, ministers, advisors, special assistants and legislators, each with substantial perks and privileges, as well as private staff.
Each new province will also have a provincial secretariat comprising approximately 40 government departments (Punjab currently has approximately 41 departments). Each of these departments will have at least three affiliated organisations (autonomous bodies and field offices). A bulky provincial civil service will have to be recruited to administer these departments and affiliated organisations. Already, governments in Pakistan are criticised for their high administrative expenditure, leaving a narrow fiscal space for development and pro-people spending.
One way to curtail administrative expenditure will be to abolish divisions and place districts directly under provincial governments. The same was done under the Devolution Plan 2001, which worked until it was scrapped in 2008. Nevertheless, this option will remain costly.
A better option may be to divide a division with a population of 10 million or more into a province. At present, 10 divisions have a population of 10 million or more each. They may be made into provinces. Leftover divisions in each province may be combined to form provinces, adjusting for geographical contiguity.
In this way, not more than 14 new provinces will come into being, including seven in Punjab, and three each in KP and Sindh. Balochistan will remain one province. This option will result in lower administrative costs than the first option. To further cut administrative costs, divisions may be abolished, creating a smarter administrative structure.
The writer is an Islamabad-based columnist. He tweets/posts @hussainhzaidi and can be reached at: [email protected]
