The general election held in Bangladesh on February 12 may ultimately be remembered not merely as a domestic political milestone, but as a turning point in the broader geopolitical dynamics of South Asia.
While its immediate impact is centred in Dhaka, the election’s strategic consequences extend across the region. In particular, it has created a diplomatic and geopolitical opening for Pakistan while simultaneously eroding the position of influence that India had long regarded as secure.
For Pakistan, the outcome represents the most credible opportunity in decades to rebuild a meaningful and mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh. For India, it introduces uncertainty into a regional equation that had long worked in its favour.
Over the past decade and a half, Bangladesh’s political trajectory under Sheikh Hasina was marked by an alignment that closely corresponds to India’s strategic interests. This relationship, built on political support, security cooperation and diplomatic coordination, enabled New Delhi to consolidate its influence in Bangladesh to an extent unprecedented since 1971. From India’s perspective, the benefits were clear: improved transit access, enhanced intelligence cooperation and the assurance that Bangladesh would remain broadly aligned with India’s regional outlook.
However, such alignment inevitably raised questions about balance and autonomy. Within Bangladesh, there was a growing perception that the country’s external posture had become too closely tied to India’s strategic priorities. The February 12 election appears to reflect, in part, a desire within Bangladesh to restore greater equilibrium in its domestic politics and foreign policy.
By producing a government with broader political legitimacy and a stronger domestic mandate, the election enhances Bangladesh’s ability to act independently in pursuit of its national interests and to avoid undue dependence on any single country. More importantly, it signals a recalibration that allows Bangladesh to diversify its external relationships and pursue a more balanced regional engagement.
This recalibration carries important implications for Pakistan.
For decades, Pakistan–Bangladesh relations have remained constrained by political and historical factors, as well as by the broader regional environment. India’s close relationship with Bangladesh during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure has inevitably shaped Dhaka’s external choices, thereby limiting the scope for meaningful diplomatic engagement between Islamabad and Dhaka. While geography, economic logic and shared regional challenges all pointed toward the benefits of greater cooperation, political realities often prevented such engagement from fully materialising.
The political changes resulting from the 2026 election introduce a new dynamic. A government in Dhaka with greater domestic legitimacy is better positioned to pursue a foreign policy guided primarily by Bangladesh’s own interests. That shift naturally creates space for a more pragmatic and forward-looking relationship with Pakistan; one based not on historical grievances, but on contemporary realities and mutual benefit.
This presents Pakistan with a significant diplomatic opportunity.
Bangladesh is today one of South Asia’s most dynamic economies. Pakistan, for its part, possesses substantial economic strengths too, particularly in textiles, agriculture, pharmaceuticals and industrial production. The complementarities between the two economies are evident. Enhanced political relations could facilitate increased trade, investment and commercial cooperation, creating tangible economic benefits for both countries.
The geopolitical implications are equally important. India has, for many years, pursued a strategy of a regional hegemon, aimed at strengthening its position at the expense of Pakistan. In its pursuit to achieve this dominance (seen as bullying by many regional countries), India became close to Bangladesh and this meant that Pakistan’s ties with Bangladesh suffered.
The results of the February 16 election change all of that. First, India’s ties with Bangladesh are unlikely to improve as long as Sheikh Hasina is afforded a comfortable refuge in India. We have already seen this change in recent months. Direct flights between Pakistan and Bangladesh have resumed, and military-to-military contacts and visits have also been restored. Pakistan’s support for Bangladesh in the T20 Cricket World Cup has been well-received in Bangladesh.
The changed landscape strengthens ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh and also reduces India’s ability to become a regional hegemon and to marginalise Pakistan. For Pakistan, this represents not merely an opportunity but a form of strategic affirmation.
Pakistan has long maintained that its relationships within South Asia should be based on sovereign equality, mutual respect and shared interests. The evolving political environment in Bangladesh creates conditions more conducive to such an approach. It opens the door to renewed diplomatic engagement, expanded economic cooperation, and broader people-to-people interaction – all of which can contribute to rebuilding trust over time.
The psychological dimension of this shift is also noteworthy. India has invested considerable effort in projecting itself as the region’s dominant power. The emergence of a more politically autonomous Bangladesh challenges the perception that regional alignments are fixed or permanent. It demonstrates that South Asian states retain agency and can adjust their external relations in accordance with their national priorities.
For Pakistan, this evolving environment creates an opportunity to re-engage the region with renewed confidence and strategic clarity.
Strengthened relations with Bangladesh would enhance Pakistan’s diplomatic standing and contribute to a more balanced regional order. Such an outcome would reinforce the principle that South Asia’s future will be shaped not by the dominance of any single state, but by the interactions among multiple sovereign states pursuing their respective interests.
Ultimately, the 2026 election represents, first and foremost, an important moment in Bangladesh’s democratic evolution. Yet its broader implications are unmistakable. It creates new diplomatic and economic possibilities for Pakistan, introduces new constraints on India’s regional leverage and signals the gradual emergence of a more multipolar regional environment.
For Pakistan, the path forward lies in constructive engagement. By approaching Bangladesh with respect, pragmatism and a focus on mutual benefit, Islamabad can seize the opportunity created by this political transition. For India, the election serves as a reminder that regional influence is not permanent. It must be sustained through balanced relationships that reflect the interests of all parties involved.
South Asia’s strategic landscape is evolving. Bangladesh’s electoral moment has contributed to that evolution. In the emerging regional balance, Pakistan is presented with an opportunity that, if approached wisely, could reshape its eastern diplomatic horizon.
The writer is a journalist based in Karachi. He tweets/posts @omar_quraishi and can be reached at: [email protected]
