LAHORE: Although a decline in rice exports has been witnessed during the first quarter of 2025-26, a sense of hope remains with the arrival of the new crop.
Rice exports have seen a significant drop in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, highlighting the necessity to examine the sector’s dynamics. Preliminary figures suggest a steep reduction in both the value and volume of exports.
The export value recorded in the first quarter indicates ~160 million in July 2025; ~150 million in August 2025; and ~125 million in September. Rice exports value dropped by 46 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in Q1FY26. Export volumes declined by 32 per cent YoY. In September specifically, exports value was down 59 per cent and export volume was down 55 per cent.
Unlike present trend, the overall export volume and value in the last financial year have been considered a success. During this period, India’s absence from the international market as a key exporter for several months provided local exporters with a chance to significantly boost their exports.
The data indicates a steady downward trend since start of this fiscal. The decline in the last several months followed India’s reentry into international trade. However, a higher tariff levy by the Trump Administration on Indian products provides an opportunity for Pakistani rice exporters.
The arrival of new crop suggests a modest recovery of rice paddy. Spokesman Kissan Board Pakistan Haji Ramzan observed that losses have apparently been lesser if compared with the earlier estimates. He added that some crop has recovered after receding of flood water and greater area under cultivation is exported to offset damage to standing crop.
He reminded that almost all non-basmati crop has been safe from floods as only core basmati belt takes a hit from deluge. Since non-basmati constitutes major share in total production, it is expected that over production would be suffice to meet local and export requirements.
Commenting on the latest rice export data showing declining trend, Shahzad Ali Malik, a prominent exporter and former chairperson of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP), said that despite the difficulties faced in the first quarter of 2025-26, the outlook for remaining 2025-26 is improving as per current trends.
Indeed, the first quarter of 2025-26 posed challenges for domestic rice exports, marked by notable decreases in both value and volume. Nevertheless, there is a positive outlook for recovery starting from the current quarter. Despite some areas suffering from flood-related damage, the overall crop is in good condition and is anticipated to produce favourable yields.
The arrival of the new crop has commenced, and while the floods have inflicted some harm, the crop remains largely healthy, with expectations for a rebound in production, particularly in the non-Basmati rice category, fostering hopes for a robust recovery.
