LAHORE: Farmers and flour millers are bracing for another challenging wheat season as sowing is set to begin next month.According to farm leaders, wheat production could be decreased in the forthcoming season as farmers had increasingly lost interest in wheat crop due to its low prices.
In the absence of the wheat policy for the upcoming season, especially covering farmer-friendly marketing aspects, there is a likelihood of lesser area under cultivation, resulting in yet another low production year after harvesting a record production couple of years back.
If the current wheat policy remains unchanged, “I fear we would not meet this year’s area and production targets,” warned Ebadur Rehman, director of the Farmers Associates of Pakistan (FAP). He explained that crops like maize, mustard, peas and potatoes are more competitive than wheat, making them a preferred choice for farmers. With two consecutive seasons of low wheat prices already impacting the farming community, Rehman emphasised the need for a policy change to support wheat farmers.
The Kissan Board Pakistan (KBP) was also wary of what it called anti-farmer wheat policy of the incumbent Punjab government. With such a loop-sided approach towards farmers, “you cannot expect any increase in grain production,” Spokesperson of KBP Haji Ramzan said, adding that only the profitability of a crop determines its acceptability among the farmers. “We are not against maintaining bread price at a low level, however, it should not be done at the cost of growers,” Ramzan observed.
Flour mill owners also expressed reservations regarding the wheat sector. Majid Abdullah, president of the Progressing Flour Millers Group (PFMG) stressed that the government must understand that they cannot simultaneously prioritise both the farmer and the consumer. Prioritising the farmer serves the nation’s best interests, allowing consumers to benefit from a free market economy driven by supply and demand, he said.
Similar to other agricultural products, prices fluctuate with the seasons. During harvest months, wheat prices will decrease, while they will rise during sowing months — this is a natural occurrence. The Punjab government needs to overcome its fear of bread prices and focus on supporting farmers to increase production, or else we risk having to import wheat and depleting our limited foreign exchange reserves, he warned.
“We are currently in the second year of the deregulation of wheat trade in the country, where the government has exited from wheat procurement, storage and distribution, effectively ending the wheat subsidy system. This marks a significant shift from a long-standing corrupt system to a free market economy, allowing farmers to sell their produce at market rates based on supply and demand. The industry is also expected to buy and store wheat under the same principles,” Majid opined.
The Punjab government is still grappling with the decision of whether to support farmers by encouraging increased production or to prioritise flour consumers by controlling commodity prices through administrative measures. Since the harvest, the PFMG president added, wheat prices have remained low due to overregulation of the market by the provincial government and an initial oversupply in the market, leading to atta prices dropping to as low as Rs1300 per 20kg bag. However, after five months of depleting wheat stocks, the market is correcting itself, with prices rising from Rs2300 per 40kg to Rs3200 per 40kg, following the principles of demand and supply. Consumers are now facing atta prices of Rs1800 per 20kg bag as we enter a lean period. Millers had been selling atta at lower prices when wheat was abundant, but with the upward trend in wheat prices, atta rates require adjustment, he stressed.
Khaleeque Arshad, chairperson of the PFMG said on one hand the provincial government wants to ensure that farmers receive a good price for wheat to incentivise increased production, but on the other hand, they are reluctant to allow atta prices to rise for consumers, especially since they can no longer provide subsidies. He highlighted that the provincial government currently holds just under one million tons of wheat, which is sufficient for only two months of consumption for the urban population of Punjab, with over six months remaining until the next harvest.
As the wheat sowing season 2025-26 approaches, guaranteeing farmers a good price for their produce should be the ultimate objective of the government’s policy. “In practice, however, the government’s administrative bodies appear to be focused on preventing wheat traders and millers from purchasing wheat at high market rates, aiming to suppress flour prices artificially by intercepting every truck of wheat on the road and prohibiting inter-provincial and inter-district trade,” Arshad regretted, saying such tactics would give wrong signals to grain market, especially the farmers.
