The sugar crisis has become a significant challenge to Pakistan’s existence. Our obsession with increasing sugar production is depleting the country's valuable water reserves, all while inflicting recurring sugar crises and exacerbating the already alarming diabetes cases in Pakistan.
The National Food Policy 2018 calls for a reduction in the area under sugarcane cultivation to make room for other high-value crops like cotton. The recent agriculture census shows a decrease in sugarcane’s share in cropped areas. However, the final Kharif estimates published by the Crop Reporting Service, Agriculture Department, present another side of the coin: the cropped area of sugarcane has increased at the expense of cotton in South Punjab.
In 2011–12, the cotton cultivation area was over five million acres in the region. However, over the years, cotton acreage fell from 3.719 million acres in 2023–24 to 2.904 million acres in 2024–25 – a loss of 815,000 acres, nearly a 22 per cent decline in just one year. Meanwhile, sugarcane’s area under cultivation rose from 938,000 acres in 2023–24 to 977,000 acres in 2024–25, a 4.0 per cent increase, underscoring farmers’ tilt toward water- and profit-intensive crops. In Rahim Yar Khan district alone, sugarcane cultivation expanded from 310,000 acres in 2014–15 to 430,000 acres by 2020.
The abandonment of cotton in southern Punjab is worrisome, as the region is responsible for producing 94 per cent of Pakistan’s cotton, contributing a significant amount of raw cotton for the country’s exports.
The sugar sector has, for years, been in the grasp of lacklustre policy foresight and elite capture. This calls for a pragmatic policy that addresses the pressing issue of water wasted on sugar and considers redirecting it toward cotton a far sounder investment in terms of water productivity.
Sugarcane yield in Pakistan uses around four times the global average of irrigation water due to poor irrigation methods. Sugarcane grown in Pakistan contains only 8–10 per cent sucrose, as opposed to 12–14 per cent in varieties grown in other countries, which further exacerbates the water crisis. This is because Pakistan grows 20 per cent more sugarcane, resulting in a 20 per cent increase in water usage. The water used in growing sugarcane can be redirected to provide approximately 100 litres of water per day to 42 per cent of Pakistan's total population, highlighting the importance of this water resource.
However, the story does not end here. The refining process further exacerbates this waste, as producing just one kilogram of refined sugar requires 1,750 litres of water. With Pakistan producing six million tons of refined sugar annually, this amounts to a staggering 10.5 MAF of water being consumed solely for sugar production.
Thus, after the amount of water, land and cash utilised, one would think that the fruits reaped would be enough for the people to enjoy without incurring further costs. But 2025 witnessed another sugar crisis.
For the past two years, Pakistan has imposed a restriction on sugar exports. However, in 2025, 765,734 metric tonnes of sugar were exported between July and May, earning Rs114 billion. After exports, domestic sugar prices hit a record Rs190 per kilogram, Rs50 higher than before exports, allegedly causing a sugar shortage in the country. This forced the government to import 750,000 tonnes, increasing the import bill by $275–280 million. Such policy missteps and governance failures highlight a deep irony: despite expending vast amounts of scarce water resources on cultivating sugarcane, the country still ends up importing sugar, nullifying the value of water invested.
In these circumstances, it would be more resourceful to import sugar altogether and use the land, water, and funds for high-value cash crops like cotton. PIDE’s research supports the idea, as cotton production is about four times more water-efficient than sugarcane production. One litre of water used in the cotton system generates 2.3 times higher net returns than sugarcane. In addition, each litre of water used in raw cotton production generates 3.8 times higher revenue than sugarcane at the second stage of the value chain.
Cotton products are Pakistan’s major export, and secondary and tertiary cotton products not only use less water than refining sugar but also earn significantly more than sugar exports, presenting a more environmentally sustainable and economically rewarding scenario for Pakistan. Discontinuing sugar production would also eliminate the sugar mafia’s hold on sugar pricing and protect the government from unexpected import bills.
Pakistan can no longer afford its sugar addiction. Every litre of water spent on sugar can reap favourable results if redirected to cotton. So, it is time to shift focus, prioritise high-value, water-efficient crops like cotton and break the grip of the sugar mafia.
The writer is associated with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad. The views expressed by her are her own and do not necessarily reflect the organisation’s official stance.
