The US-Iran war has, on the face of it, lent a lot of credence to the view that the sun is about to set – if not already set – on the America-led unipolar world order, and that the world is moving towards a multipolar order.
In the envisaged multipolar world, China and other major powers, such as Russia, India and European countries, are seen as capable of challenging Washington’s uncontested dominance since the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s. Is this really the case?
Unipolarity is a structure (global or regional) in which one state’s capabilities are too great to be counterbalanced. Bipolarity is a structure in which two states, constituting opposite poles or blocs, dominate, while multipolarity comprises several centres of power, with no single state enjoying an overriding advantage over others.
The most widely used measures of state capability are economy size (or GDP), military spending and the level of technological sophistication, along with their associated indicators. In 1996, a few years after the end of the cold war or the bipolar world order, the US accounted for 25.3 per cent of global GDP. At the end of 2024, its share had marginally risen to 26.2 per cent (World Bank data).
Over the last three decades, despite the rise of China, the US has maintained its status as the world’s largest economy. China, the second-largest economy, makes up nearly 17 per cent of the global economy. The other major economies – Germany, India and Japan – are far behind.
Despite all the talk of ‘de-dollarisation’ in recent years, the American dollar remains the top internationally traded currency, accounting for over 44 per cent of such transactions. The share of the euro is a distant 16 per cent, while that of the Chinese yuan is a meagre 2.1 per cent. The American dollar also remains the top reserve currency, that is, the currency that central banks around the world hold in their vaults. With a share of 59 per cent, it’s the most sought-after currency than all other currencies combined (IMF data).
Such a large share of the greenback in both accounts indicates that it continues to command the solid trust of governments and businesses worldwide. Even China continues to invest the bulk of its enormous trade surplus in American government bills and bonds.
From economic strength to military muscles. The US contributes some 40 per cent to global defence spending and is far ahead of the second largest defence spender China, whose share is nearly 13 per cent. In terms of nuclear weapons, Washington (5,277 warheads) is marginally behind Moscow (5,449 warheads). With 600 nuclear warheads, China is at distant third.
In the era of high technology, a country’s level of technological sophistication can tip the scales in the scramble for global supremacy. On the World Intellectual Property Organization (Wipo) Global Innovation Index 2025, the US is behind only Switzerland and Sweden and far ahead of China, which is ranked 10th. Of the world’s 10 biggest high-tech companies, nine are American.
The US also has a pre-eminent position in institutions of global economic governance: 17.42 per cent and 16.28 per cent of the total votes in the IMF and World Bank, respectively.
With 750 military bases in over 80 countries, the US is and is likely to remain the only state capable of projecting major military power globally. No other state or even a combination of states is capable of mounting and deploying a major expeditionary force outside its own region, except with US assistance. The US is a security provider of major economic powers like the EU countries, Japan and South Korea against Russia, North Korea and possibly China.
Soft power is a country’s ability to influence others without resorting to coercion, mainly through culture and intellectual ideas. The US soft power includes democracy, market economy, institutions of higher learning, the entertainment industry and digital technology, and is higher than that of any other country.
Doesn’t the current situation in the Middle East, particularly Iran’s bold resistance, portend that the US dominance is in eclipse? If sanctions-hit Iran, which at best is a middle power, can outface America, what can stop greater powers for throwing up the gauntlet to it? Without belittling Iranians’ indomitable courage and spirit, one can reply that the US-Iran war, far from prefiguring America’s decline as a superpower, has confirmed its dominance. By attacking Tehran, Washington violated international law but faced not a scrap of pressure – much less resistance – from any third country.
When Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, it was immediately placed under international sanctions. But no third country has sanctioned the US for invading Iran. The reason is the fear of retaliation, given America’s military might and economic prowess. Each is too strong to be counterbalanced – the unmistakable characteristic of unipolarity.
On the whole, the US remains far ahead of other countries in key capabilities. America’s nearest rival is China. But on the key indicators, except one (exports), the gap is too wide to be bridged any time soon.
Besides, if at all, Beijing is a reluctant candidate for directly challenging Washington’s might. The reason for this is primarily cultural. Historically, for more than 4000 years, China has been essentially an inward-looking power, content to race against itself rather than against other countries and showing little appetite for overseas conquests.
There is no such thing as Chinese imperialism. Nor do Chinese leaders ever claim they are, or wish to be, a superpower. The Chinese eschew bloc politics and military alliances. Like the panda, their national animal, they are peaceful to the core.
The writer is an Islamabad-based columnist. He tweets/posts @hussainhzaidi and can be reached at: [email protected]
