Is America in decline? Yes and No. The answer is ‘no’ when you look at its vibrant and resilient economy, overwhelming military superiority, landmark achievements in science and technology, unbounded spirit of innovation, great advances in medical sciences and dynamic system of higher education that is the envy of the world.
Yet something is amiss, inciting a perception of decline. The quality of life in the US and its value system have eroded. Looking at its traditional freedoms, race relations, policing, justice system, social cohesion, human security, commitment to democratic values, and the strength and stability of its institutions, America clearly seems to be in decline.
Internally, the US is conflicted, and abroad, the world is no longer at Washington’s command, if ever it was. The internal strife is, however, more serious. Commercially driven 24/7 cable TV, radio talk shows, the internet and social media have all fostered or exacerbated contentious identities, ideological tensions and culture wars that threaten the country’s democratic institutions and social fabric.
US President Donald Trump did not create these divisions. But without them, he would not have come to power. His extensive experience running two reality TV shows and marketing the Trump brand, along with his exposure to media, advertising and salesmanship, gave him impeccable insights into how to influence human emotions. He played on the economic grievances and social anxieties of the working class across party lines caused by the free trade and open borders immigration policies of the Democratic Party, patronised by what he called liberals, globalists and other elites.
The Democratic Party’s policies since the Obama era were veering to the Left while a large swath of the white population was moving to the Right largely as a reaction first to the election of a Black president and later to the ‘woke’ policies of the Democrats and then to the progressive rhetoric of Bernie Sanders, a professed socialist, and a small band of his cohorts in the Congress. Some other groups, like Latinos and young blacks, disaffected for different reasons, also joined the whites.
Trump invoked the fear and biases of the white majority, especially the socially conservative and white supremacist among them, as well as the worries of small businesses restrained by the regulatory regime and the greed of the corporate sector. Though Trump centred his campaign on attacks against what he called the radical Left, the reality is he appealed to different people for different reasons, and thus came to capture the hearts and minds of nearly half the population. What you had was a winning coalition.
Trump has been helped enormously by social media and the rise of partisan mainstream media outlets like Fox News and the increasing influence of digital media like podcasts. They are media but in name only. They are a layered and overlapping mix of news, fake news, political propaganda, advocacy of good and bad causes, lobbying fronts and last but not least a vehicle for self-projection. That has enabled Trump to say whatever would serve his purpose and his supporters would believe him. He is succeeding because he has discredited the mainstream media in their eyes. And by his relentless use of Truth Social, he is ensuring his supporters do not access any competing viewpoints.
As Washington Post says on its front page, ‘democracy dies in darkness’. The fact is that only an informed electorate can make intelligent policy choices and elect candidates suited to carry them out. But sadly, much of the voting public is being misinformed. Money and capitalism have played a particularly salient role in this misinformation.
Money had always influenced politics to a degree. But with the growth of enormous wealth in the hands of a few, spurred by the rise of US and global prosperity and the tech revolution, money has also come to influence the media in a big way, further enhancing its impact on politics.
As money and politics began chasing each other, this created a new opportunity and role for the mushrooming 24/7 cable television – to serve as a broker among special interests, politics, and the public. The media interpreted the world around people and made choices for them, even choosing their politics. No one did it better than Fox News, which was founded in 1996 and, over time, became the most-watched network in America.
Fox thrived on grievance and alienation, and there was enough of it caused by global and domestic forces. Jobs and factories were going to foreigners and foreign countries and income levels were falling, affecting the so-called American dream. People felt victimised and excluded at the hands of elements they did not understand, prompting them to look for scapegoats. Fox catered for them with xenophobia and right-wing politics blessed by the religious right. And that led to a divided country, followed by polarised politics and radicalised political parties, especially the Republican Party.
Serious discussion of serious issues suffered not just because of polarisation and politicisation of issues, but also because of their trivialisation, as the news was packaged as entertainment by entertainment giants like Paramount, Disney, Time Warner and Viacom that came to own many TV networks. The news entertained and was fed on people’s politics. The CBS owned by Paramount has recently been busy eviscerating journalistic freedom of what used to be the most watched TV news magazine, ‘60 Minutes’.
No political campaign is possible these days without TV ads. And these ads tend to be massive and expensive. Money is also needed to pay for the candidates’ and their entourage’s constant travel and to pay the vast network of campaign workers. Basically, political campaigns have become gigantic exercises costing time and money. It used to be small donors, but in the 2010 case Citizens United, the Supreme Court allowed corporations to make campaign donations. That has enabled the emergence of Super PACs (political action committees), much of whose money is coming from unidentified sources known as dark money.
Recently, in the primary election to select the Republican Party’s nominee for a Senate seat, the two candidates, sitting Senator John Cronyn and challenger Ken Paxton, spent $130 million, making it the most expensive primary in US history. Obviously, it may have involved mega corporate donors who hope to influence the election and policy.
The sad thing is that corporate interests focus on policies that empower them at the expense of people, including deregulation, low taxes for themselves at the cost of safety-net programs and the removal of various forms of consumer protection. Social media and AI tech giants want to be free from any government restrictions so that they can make unlimited money.
Polarisation has made it very difficult, if not impossible, to have a good national policy. This lack of consensus has enabled organised groups, well-funded lobbyists and powerful special interests, and now an authoritarian leader, to push their points of view.
It is not just domestic policy. Foreign policy also suffers from the influence of powerful special interests, especially elite interests and those of the Military-Industrial complex and various diasporas. America’s never-ending wars may be the worst but not the only consequence of this elite-led foreign policy process.
Finally, a note of caution: America’s military and economic strengths remain undiminished. Its failures are not due to any decline in its strengths, which remain. They are because of poor policy choices and bad judgment in a world that is no longer beating to the rhythm of its demands, if ever it was.
America’s foreign policy failures have often stemmed from its unforced errors. It has to learn to live in this world differently. It has to learn to show some humility and curb its predatory instincts. If it does that, the perception of its decline, which is more prevalent abroad than at home, may disappear. Basically, to change its conduct abroad, it has to change itself at home.
To return to the question: Is America in decline? Not yet.
The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor at Georgetown University.
