LAHORE: Wheat output in Pakistan is likely to decline by around 1.2 million tonnes, or 3.8 percent, to 28.1 million tonnes during the ongoing Rabi season (2025-26) due to adverse weather conditions across the country.
Against an earlier projection of 29.31 million tonnes-already slightly below the official target of 29.678 million tonnes-the sudden spike in temperatures during the grain development stage, followed by rain and storms at the maturity stage, has severely damaged the standing crop. These factors have resulted in a loss of approximately 1.2 million tonnes of production. Officials said the primary causes of physical damage were grain shriveling and lodging of mature plants.
The revised estimate presents a bleak outlook, as total production may fall below last year’s output of 28.42 million tonnes, harvested from 9.1 million hectares. Of the projected total for this season, Punjab is expected to contribute around 21.5 million tonnes, followed by Sindh with approximately 4.10 million tonnes.
With carryover stocks of about 2 million tonnes already available, total wheat availability for the marketing year 2026-27 is estimated at 30 million tonnes, leaving a shortfall of roughly 1.2 million tonnes. Officials indicated that the need for imports is becoming increasingly likely and suggested that the government should take timely steps to build strategic reserves and bridge the supply gap.
Discussing crop conditions, a senior official said that until mid-February, the wheat crop in Punjab-the country’s largest producer-was in excellent condition, raising hopes that production might exceed the “magic figure” of 23 million tonnes. This optimism was largely based on timely sowing of nearly 90 percent of the crop across the province.
However, conditions deteriorated rapidly by late February, when temperatures began rising sharply and exceeded 35°C in early March. This sudden heat stress restricted plant growth and forced early maturity over vast areas. As a result, wheat plants turned from lush green to pale green, adversely affecting grain development and reducing yields.
The crop failed to recover even after relatively milder weather and rainfall returned. A second setback occurred in late March and mid-April, when heavy rains, hailstorms, and strong winds struck during the maturity stage. These weather events caused widespread damage to standing wheat crops across multiple districts.
Climate change-induced temperature fluctuations, unseasonal rainfall, and strong winds disrupted grain maturity in several regions. It is estimated that nearly 0.3 million acres were affected, with a significant portion suffering losses due to lodging of the mature crop.
Field reports indicate that harvesting progress has reached nearly 80 percent this year, compared to 72 percent during the same period last year. District-wise harvesting in South Punjab shows 96 percent completion in Bahawalpur, 97 percent in Khanewal, and 96 percent in Multan.
In terms of productivity, yield data from Crop Cut Experiments conducted by the provincial Crop Reporting Service indicates that irrigated areas produced 34.02 maunds per acre this season, slightly down from 34.7 maunds last year. The overall provincial average yield stands at 33.7 maunds per acre, reflecting a decline of about 4 percent from last year’s average of 34.2 maunds.
Officials attributed the production shortfall primarily to an average yield loss of about one maund per acre in Punjab. However, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook, they suggested that the final production figure may not be significantly lower than last year’s output and could ultimately be just 0.2 million tonnes less than the previous season.
