LAHORE:The combination of an early-March heatwave followed by recent unseasonable rains and gusty winds has dealt a significant blow to the wheat crop in patches across the province.
Both farmers and government officials are now expressing concerns over potential output losses. These unusual wet weather conditions occurred at a critical juncture, coinciding with the harvesting stage, raising doubts regarding country's ability to meet its national production targets.
Current estimates suggest that the wheat crop in Punjab is particularly vulnerable, with some experts predicting production losses of between 7 and 8 percent. Strong winds and heavy rains at various places in the province have caused ‘lodging’—the flattening of wheat plants—which is expected to reduce overall yields and degrade grain quality.
Despite these challenges, Punjab Agriculture Secretary Iftikhar Ali Sahoo maintained during a recent briefing that a ‘bumper’ wheat crop is still expected this year. However, he stopped short of providing a precise output figure.
This optimistic stance stands in stark contrast to the Agriculture Department’s claim just a few days prior, which projected a crop size of 22.5 million tons.The secretary further noted that farmers are currently receiving comprehensive guidance on how to conduct timely and safe harvesting under these prevailing weather conditions.
Conversely, farmer representatives remain far more pessimistic about the harvest. Khalid Khokhar, President of Pakistan KissanIttehad, blamed the poor outlook directly on the inclement weather. He said it is hard to meet official production target for wheat crop. Not only this, he added, maize crop and mango orchards also took a hit. Internal department figures seem to align more closely with the farmers' views. An agriculture dept official acknowledged that losses could reach as high as 10 percent, suggesting that total production may not exceed 21.5 million tons. Revised provincial estimates now indicate that Punjab’s wheat production may likely settle around 21 million tons, a significant decrease from the original 22.5 million-ton target.
Amidst these shifting projections, the government has set a procurement goal of 3 million tons, with operations officially commencing mid-month. During the same meeting, Punjab’s Minister for Agriculture, Syed Ashiq Hussain Kirmani, announced that the government has finalised wheat harvesting cost estimates for every district. He also confirmed that the official government procurement of wheat is scheduled to begin on April 15.
