ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s fertility rate continues to decline gradually, reflecting a slow but ongoing demographic transition, reveals official study.
The study, based on data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLM) and the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024–25, released by Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics on Monday shows that the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen from 4.0 in 2018–19 to 3.6 in 2024–25.
Despite this decline, the report notes that progress remains uneven, with a pronounced rural-urban divide. Fertility rates in urban areas have dropped to 3.0 births per woman, compared to 4.1 in rural regions, indicating that cities are transitioning more rapidly than the countryside.
The analysis also highlights a rise in contraceptive use across the country. The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) increased from 34 percent to 38 percent nationally. Urban areas again lead with a rate of 44 percent, while rural areas lag behind at 34 percent.
Education emerges as a key factor influencing family planning trends. Women with higher levels of education are significantly more likely to use contraceptives and have fewer children, underscoring the role of education in shaping reproductive choices and accelerating demographic change.
However, the report identifies several persistent barriers to wider adoption of family planning. Around 36 percent of respondents cited a desire for more children as the primary reason for not using contraception, while 8 percent pointed to spousal opposition and 6 percent to religious beliefs. These factors are more prevalent in rural communities.
The findings also draw attention to limited decision-making power among women. In many households, decisions related to family planning and other key issues are made jointly or dominated by male family members, restricting women’s autonomy.
Overall, the report concludes that while Pakistan is moving towards lower fertility rates, the pace of change remains slow and uneven. It emphasises that addressing disparities in education, healthcare access, and gender empowerment will be critical to accelerating the country’s demographic transition.
