Pakistan possesses a demographic profile that could either become its greatest asset or its most destabilising liability. Unfortunately, we are headed in the wrong direction.
To understand the scale of the challenge, it is important to recognise the extent of Pakistan’s educational underinvestment. Unesco has advised a minimum of 4-6 per cent expenditure for education, which our leaders have constantly ignored. Pakistan has been consistently spending only 1.7-1.9 per cent of its budget on education, which is far lower than India, which spends 4.1 per cent of its much larger GDP on education. This has resulted in a significant difference in the capabilities of the two countries’ populations.
The result is that over the last three decades, India has forged well ahead of Pakistan, with its exports now reaching $820 billion, while Pakistan’s stagnate at a dismal $30 billion. This is a shameful reality and shows our leadership’s lack of vision and the urgent need for a change of direction.
There are lessons to be learned from the transformations that have occurred in Korea, Vietnam, Singapore and some other countries. The rapid development of Korea, a poor country in the 1960s, to one of the strongest world economies was also based on its emphasis on quality education and its allocation of appropriate resources to it. South Korea spends around 5.0 per cent of GDP on education while also maintaining one of the highest R&D expenditures in the world, at nearly 5.0 per cent of GDP.
Singapore too consistently invests about 3.0 per cent of GDP in education, but couples it with highly targeted workforce development and innovation programs. Vietnam, despite having a per capita income historically comparable to or lower than Pakistan’s, has invested steadily in school quality and teacher development, producing learning outcomes that outperform many wealthier nations.
At the school level, Pakistan’s learning crisis is acute. There are some 27 million out-of-school children with no opportunities for education. Many children complete primary school without achieving functional literacy or numeracy. This is not merely a statistical problem; it is a structural barrier to scientific advancement. A child who cannot read fluently by Grade 3 will struggle to comprehend scientific texts in Grade 6. A student who does not master fractions and algebraic thinking by middle school cannot meaningfully engage with physics or computer science in later years.
Pakistan can tackle the out-of-school crisis through a focused, low-cost national mobilisation strategy that combines governance reform with scalable delivery models: immediately introduce double-shift schooling in all government facilities to maximise existing infrastructure; expand public-private partnerships through performance-based funding (as demonstrated by the Punjab Education Foundation model); strengthen conditional cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support Programme to keep poor children – especially girls – in school; establish community-based non-formal schools in underserved rural areas; and digitise teacher attendance and school monitoring to eliminate ghost schools and leakages.
Teacher quality lies at the heart of educational transformation. In Singapore, teacher recruitment is highly selective, training is systematic, and professional development is continuous. Teachers receive structured mentoring early in their careers and leadership pathways later. Pakistan’s system, in contrast, often emphasises seniority and credentials over demonstrated teaching effectiveness. Political interference in appointments undermines meritocracy.
Curriculum reform itself must shift from memorisation to inquiry. Pakistan’s textbooks frequently prioritise factual recall over reasoning. Board examinations often reward students who reproduce expected answers rather than those who demonstrate conceptual understanding. This culture of rote learning discourages experimentation, curiosity and intellectual risk-taking. Pakistan has periodically launched laptop distribution schemes and ICT initiatives, but without systemic teacher training and curriculum integration, such efforts yield limited long-term impact.
Mathematics deserves particular emphasis because it is the language of modern technology. Nations that industrialised successfully invested heavily in mathematics education. South Korea’s rapid ascent in electronics and manufacturing was supported by strong performance in math among students. Ireland, which transitioned from an agriculture-dominated economy to a high-tech hub, invested in STEM pathways and in expanding higher education to attract multinational technology companies.
Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) is another neglected pillar. A technology economy does not rely solely on PhDs and engineers; it requires skilled technicians, machinists, laboratory technologists, renewable energy installers and network operators. Singapore’s Institute of Technical Education and polytechnic system exemplify how vocational training can be high-status, well-resourced, and aligned with industry demand. Germany’s dual apprenticeship model integrates classroom learning with paid industry training, creating a steady pipeline of skilled workers.
Pakistan’s vocational institutions often suffer from outdated equipment, weak industry linkages and social stigma. Modernising TVET, aligning curricula with emerging sectors such as solar energy, automation and advanced manufacturing and creating incentives for apprenticeships for private firms could dramatically enhance productivity.
Universities represent the apex of the knowledge ecosystem. Yet Pakistan’s universities struggle with governance challenges, funding instability, and research fragmentation. The operational budgets of our public sector universities have been frozen at Rs66 billion for almost a decade due to shameful and myopic government policies, resulting in most of our universities being degraded into low-level colleges with few opportunities for research and development.
The tenure-track system of higher salaries based on performance, introduced by me when I was chairman of the HEC in 2005, resulted in the brightest children opting for careers in education and research, and was responsible for the phenomenal increase in research quality. The dramatic transformation of the higher education sector that occurred under my stewardship led to warning bells ringing in India and to the Indian prime minister calling a cabinet meeting in July 2006 regarding how Pakistan had begun to forge ahead.
Unfortunately, the momentum created during my tenure was not maintained by the governments that followed president Musharraf, and the higher education sector unravelled, with the tenure-track system of faculty appointments eroding over time. A book written by Fred Hayward and published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2022 accurately and in detail describes the rise and fall of the higher education sector during my leadership and in subsequent years.
Pakistan’s underinvestment in education, politicisation of the sector and fragmentation of the education system through the 18th Amendment have destroyed our future, leaving the nation struggling in a rapidly advancing technological world. Lip service will not do; the time to act is now, before the youth bulge becomes a huge liability.
The writer is a former federal minister, Unesco science laureate and founding chairperson of the Higher Education Commission (HEC). He can be reached at: [email protected]
