The recent ‘pleasant meeting’ between New York’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani, and US President Donald Trump has surprised many, lending credence to those who claim Trump is unpredictable. Just a few weeks ago, the Republican president was openly lambasting the socialist politician.
But now the incumbent of the Oval Office seems to be heaping eulogies on Mamdani, laughing off the torrent of criticism that he had unleashed against him just a week ago. Some believe that Trump's unpredictability could be a blessing for New York, arguing that it could be very hard for the newly elected mayor to run the city's affairs without the assistance of the federal government.
It is not the first time that the Republican leader has turned out to be very unpredictable. During his first stint in power, he kept lambasting the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, going to the extent of threatening the pariah communist state, but after meeting the autocrat, he more or less described him as a wonderful person, expressing a desire to meet him again.
In the same way, going against all odds, the Republican leader tried to normalise relations with Russia. Many were flabbergasted by his reconciliatory approach towards Moscow, asserting that it amounted to appeasing an authoritarian ruler. It was interesting that on the one hand, Trump was hobnobbing with Russian President Putin, but on the other, he was also coercing Germany and some other European countries into importing fuel from the US, asking his Western allies to stop importing gas from Russia. His approach to protecting Europe from external threats also sparked a sudden wave of concern across the continent. Instead of addressing the security concerns, the president accused Nato members of extracting money from the US for their defence. This unexpected attitude of the American president forced several Nato members to raise their defence budgets.
Some believe that the unpredictability of Trump turned out to be a blessing for the world in some way. For instance, his administration did not trigger any new conflict, which was good for the world, keeping in view that conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan alone are believed to have claimed more than 2.5 million lives directly or indirectly, besides gulping down around 8 trillion dollars. The administration also reduced tensions with Russia and North Korea, going some way in assuring the world that not everything had been lost.
Soon after coming into power for the second time, Trump unleashed the terror of tariffs, creating sudden panic in several Western capitals, besides sending shockwaves through other parts of the world. He blurred the lines between allies and enemies by almost accusing every country of taking advantage of the US's generosity and kindness. He also substantially reduced American aid for several welfare projects.
But his surprising intervention during the Pakistan-India conflict turned out to be a blessing not only for South Asians but also for the entire region. Any conflict in the region could escalate into a nuclear Armageddon. Trump not only actively intervened but openly mentioned the role that he played, creating embarrassment for the largest democracy. His intervention during the Iran-Israel conflict could also be described as positive despite its overwhelming pro-Israel overtones. Tel Aviv was not only seeking to dismantle the nuclear infrastructure of the Islamic Republic, but it also wanted to carry out ruthless bombardment and change the regime. It was also his influence that saved Lebanon from total destruction; besides that, a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel was also possible because of Trump’s intervention.
When Israel attacked Qatar in a bid to kill some Hamas leaders, it received an angry response from the Trump administration, with the Republican leader forcing Netanyahu to tender an unconditional apology to the Qatari government. Trump again went against the wishes of the Israeli government by making some vague promises about the creation of a Palestinian state during the passage of the recent UN resolution on Gaza.
During the recent visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, Trump again surprised the pro-Israeli lobby by agreeing to sell F-35 stealth fighters to Saudi Arabia, which marks a major policy shift. It may be mentioned that Washington has always been unwilling to export these high-end jets to Arab states in the Middle East. Many believe such a sale would have significant ramifications for the airpower balance in the region, where only Israel is equipped with such jets. So, this could be a blessing for the region because it could act as a deterrent against Israeli bullying tactics, saving countries from invasions and destruction.
Now, Trump is trying to seek a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The Republican president again surprised his Western allies by coming up with a peace plan that largely favours Russia, punishing Ukraine. If he can achieve sustainable peace, it will turn out to be very positive, saving Ukraine from more death and destruction, besides creating ease in the lives of European people who have witnessed a phenomenal surge in the cost of living since the eruption of the conflict.
However, critics point out the elements of unpredictability that could become a curse for different regions. For instance, after publicly humiliating India, Washington has struck a defence deal with New Delhi, which would trigger an arms race in the region, prompting Pakistan and China to follow suit. So, the disaster that Trump’s unpredictability avoided could revisit any time soon.
In the same way, he is trying to douse the flames of war in Ukraine but planning to sell weapons to Europe on a massive scale. Trump’s sudden change in attitude has forced Western countries to increase their defence budget, but his unreliability has also compelled them to think of ways to protect themselves, which means that the continent might again face a race of military superiority. So, it could be summed up that Trump’s unpredictability saved the world from more wars and conflicts, but the same is prompting it to amass more and more weapons to fight future conflicts in a more bloody and lethal way than we have ever seen.
The writer is a freelance journalist who can be reached at: [email protected]
