ISLAMABAD: The majority of uranium in Iran’s nuclear plants, including Fordow, had been moved elsewhere prior to the recent US attacks, experts and international monitors speculate.
While an early intelligence assessment indicated that the US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of Tehran’s nuclear programme and likely only set it back by months, CNN reported, citing three people briefed on it.
In the wake of the operation, codenamed Midnight Hammer, the US president said that the attack “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear goals. By inflicting “monumental damage” on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan plants, the US had seized the bomb “right out of Iran’s hands”, he claimed.
However, world newspapers including Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Telegraph have reported that the whereabouts of the 400kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium is now missing and unknown after the US strikes on three important Iranian nuclear installations.
Despite US officials’ quick assertion that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been weakened, regional experts and international monitors believe that the most sensitive materials may have been moved before the June-22 aerial attacks.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, stated on Monday that he anticipated significant destruction at Fordow, but that his organisation was attempting to get access to “account for” Iran’s massive stockpile of highly enriched uranium. According to Grossi, UN inspectors last saw the fuel a week before Israel launched its attacks on Iran on June 13.
In recent days, Iran has moved uranium and other equipment from outside Fordow, according to two Israeli officials with access to the intelligence, The New York Times reported. They claimed that Iran had also relocated its 400kg stockpile of 60pc enriched uranium, which was kept in Isfahan, to a secret site.
The fact that the stuff had been moved at the last minute on Sunday was implied by US Vice President JD Vance. “We’re going to work in the coming weeks to make sure we do something with that fuel,” he told ABC News.
Further, satellite images show that two days prior to the US strikes, trucks, bulldozers, and security convoys seemed to surround the Fordow facility. According to analysts at TS2 Space, a Polish defence company, it showed a “frantic effort” to transfer centrifuges or shielding supplies.
Jeffrey Lewis, an American specialist in nuclear nonproliferation and a professor at the California-based James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, stated on X that he was “unimpressed” by both the US and Israeli strikes on Iran since they “failed to target significant elements of Iran’s nuclear materials and production infrastructure”.
Reports suggest that it is a difficult but doable feat to move 400kg uranium that has been enriched to 60pc. The material is typically kept in big steel cylinders and may be carried overland with rigorous security measures.
Iran’s decades-long experience evading surveillance, along with its vast network of fortified bunkers and subterranean tunnels, makes such a transfer feasible, according to experts. It’s possible that the convoy observed close to Fordow was a component of this relocation endeavour.
Others highlight the potential that smaller, more regular deliveries might be transported in pieces. It is still unknown if the uranium is now kept in a different fortified location, buried underground, or perhaps split up and hidden among several locations. Nevertheless, the IAEA is unable to confirm any of these possibilities without access.
The US strike was not unexpected, said Mehdi Mohammadi -- a counsellor to the head of the Iranian parliament -- adding that the Iranian officials had previously evacuated the Fordow complex.
The process for enriching uranium to make civil nuclear energy and a nuclear bomb is broadly the same. It is generally accepted that uranium enriched to 3.67pc is sufficient for civil nuclear energy, while purity levels of 90pc are required for a nuclear weapon. Once purity levels reach 60pc, as in the case of Iran, it is not a lengthy process to proceed to 90pc.
Meanwhile, an early intelligence assessment indicated that the US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of Tehran’s nuclear programme and likely only set it back by months, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing three people briefed on it.
While over a dozen bombs were dropped on two of the nuclear facilities, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment plant and the Natanz Enrichment Complex, they did not fully eliminate the sites’ centrifuges and highly enriched uranium, CNN reported, citing people familiar with the early assessment.
Citing two people familiar with the assessment, CNN reported that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium had not been destroyed.It said the assessment was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency - Pentagon’s intelligence arm -- and is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by the US Central Command after the U.S. strikes.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed the CNN report in a social media post. “This alleged “assessment” is flat-out wrong and was classified as “top secret” but was still leaked to CNN,” Leavitt saidon X.
