LAHORE: The water level of Mangla Dam, the country’s largest reservoir, remains significantly below its maximum conservation capacity, raising serious concern about whether the gap can be filled this year.
If the dam is not filled to its full capacity, wheat farming across vast parts of the country could face a severe setback due to water shortages in the upcoming Rabi season, which begins on October 1. Wheat, being a staple food crop, is of strategic importance, and two-thirds of its cultivation occurs in the Mangla-Chenab command area.
Only consistently high flows or flood-like conditions in the Jhelum River can help fill Mangla Dam near its maximum conservation level of 1,242 feet, as the Kharif season enters its final phase. Currently, the reservoir stands at 1,196 feet—46 feet below its full capacity—storing just around four million acre-feet (MAF) of water, which is slightly over half of its total 7.3 MAF capacity.
The slow pace of water impounding remains a major concern. Unlike other rivers in the Indus Basin, flows in the Jhelum River have remained low this year due to reduced snowfall and rainfall in its catchment areas. During April-June, when inflows to Mangla usually gain momentum, India began tampering with Chenab River flows in blatant violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. As a result, as much as 0.7 MAF of water had to be released from Mangla Dam to compensate for the disrupted inflows from the Chenab River on the Indian side.
This deliberate water aggression by India—flouting multiple bilateral and international laws—had forced the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) to coordinate with the provinces to divert water from Jhelum to Chenab River. This was done to maintain irrigation supplies in the vast Rachna Doab region (between the Chenab and Ravi rivers), critical for sowing paddy and other Kharif crops.
According to an official from the federal water regulator, the diversion from Mangla had resulted in an estimated loss of up to 0.7 MAF of water stored for the upcoming Rabi season. This marks one of the first recorded losses of western river water at the hands of upper riparian India in open violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. India’s hostile move has worsened an already precarious water situation in Pakistan.
This isn’t merely a Pakistani allegation. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly boasted in a May speech that water would no longer be allowed to flow to Pakistan. Indian mainstream media also reported that Chenab flows had been deliberately curtailed through water impounding at the Baglihar and Salal dams in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
It is worth mentioning that under the World Bank-brokered 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan has exclusive rights to the waters of Chenab and other western rivers, with only limited allowances for India regarding existing usage, future needs, and non-storage hydropower projects.
In addition to Indian “water terrorism,” poor hydrological conditions in the Jhelum River catchment, mismanagement by the Punjab Irrigation Department, and weak coordination by IRSA have also contributed to the low water levels in Mangla Dam, sources said.
The lack of urgency among local authorities appears to stem from the absence of proactive flow regulation. There are troubling reports of verbal changes made to water indent requests, and some officials reportedly increased outflows from Mangla Dam on verbal orders, insiders revealed.
As India’s actions continue to threaten flows from the western rivers of the Indus Basin, there is an urgent need for close monitoring of Jhelum and Chenab river flows, careful adjustment of outflows, and robust coordination between IRSA and the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)—especially during rainy periods, when demand typically drops.
At present, however, the regulation of Mangla’s flows appears to be reactive rather than proactive. The role of Punjab’s water authorities and the national regulator requires strict scrutiny.
Given the country’s critical water situation, outflows from Mangla should have been minimised, particularly after the CJ Canal became operational. Moreover, inflows from both the Jhelum and Chenab rivers should have been monitored and managed more precisely to maximise water storage in Mangla Dam.
Unfortunately, this has not occurred in recent weeks, even as downpours in the catchment areas of both rivers triggered flooding in several districts. Wet conditions increased flows between Mangla Dam and Rasul Barrage, yet outflows from Mangla were not adjusted accordingly. Water outflows from Rasul Barrage on the Jhelum River were recorded over an extended period, while upstream releases from Mangla Dam remained unchanged.
This management flaw and its implications for national water security require urgent examination. A permanent joint coordination mechanism should be activated to mitigate the effects of any future hostile actions by India.
When contacted, the Punjab Irrigation Department declined to comment on this critical issue, which directly affects the survival of millions. However, authorities later reduced outflows from Mangla Dam—a last-ditch effort to retain some storage in the reservoir. One top official of the department did not deny the allegations of altering outflows on verbal instructions.
An IRSA spokesperson, meanwhile, largely attributed the low storage at Mangla to reduced Jhelum River flows. He said that the current reservoir levels are being monitored daily and that provinces are being kept informed of the overall water situation. Current outflows from Mangla, he claimed, are in line with the Punjab Irrigation Department’s demand and are being utilised in the Upper and Lower Jhelum Canals. He said that IRSA is proactively regulating the Mangla Reservoir in coordination with the provinces, integrating it into the overall system operations.
Earlier, IRSA had expressed concern over the severe fluctuation in Chenab River flows from the Indian side, warning that it could not only damage standing crops but also undermine efforts to fill the Mangla Dam, as additional releases had to be made to offset the shortfall in Chenab inflows.
