In some ways, you can feel it in your bones. A momentous wave of anxiety has swept across a world that is struggling to contend with the impact and possible consequences of the unfinished Iran war. We are poised at a turning point in history and no one knows how it will play out.
But there are certain messages that we can already decipher. In an allegorical sense, we have seen the powerlessness of power. And there is this example of how a battered country that has suffered huge losses in life and property can find strength and influence with its strategic response to a mighty force.
It would be hard for a creative writer to imagine this story. S/he may prefer to tell it in the mode of magical realism. Or we would need a Homer to do this because the events of the past about two months have the intimations of Greek mythology. And the big challenge in any fictional presentation of the Iran war would be to draw the character played in reality by President Donald Trump of the United States.
I may be excused for this fanciful digression. It is largely prompted by my inability to bring together the different perspectives and properly interpret developments across numerous fronts. There are so many surprises and wonders that this war has generated. And more twists and turns remain embedded in a story that is rooted in the very nature of relations between Iran and the US, with Israel pulling strings from behind the curtain.
Though the ceasefire was indefinitely extended by President Trump just a few hours before the initial two-week ceasefire was set to expire, a war-like situation has continued because of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This affects the entire world and intensifies the energy and economic crises that were totally not foreseen when the US and Israel began their essentially pointless war.
We, in Pakistan, need to understand our very complex and intimate relationship with this war. That we are in a very good place in that respect is not to be doubted. Our diplomatic triumph in becoming a mediator is a remarkable achievement, allowing ordinary citizens to take pride in their country.
But we, too, have to pay the cost of this conflict and I don’t see much attention being paid to this question at an intellectual level. A massive disruption in the affairs of the countries in the Gulf region, particularly the UAE, will soon have a large impact on our economic and social sectors.
There is so much that is fervently debated in our casual conversations. I am a bit amazed by the passion people I know invest in these discussions. They are also baffled by some outcomes of this ongoing war. This widely accepted perception of Iran’s astounding resistance to American aggression is generating great excitement. So, what upheavals will mark the birth of a new order? Where does China belong in this equation?
As I said, things are not easily comprehensible. Overall, it is a grim situation that highlights distinct problems across countries. At the time of this writing, a flicker of hope has risen with the prospect of the second round of negotiations between America and Iran in Islamabad, the city that has been in a security lockdown for more than a week. How this excessive security has affected the lives of the citizens and has even created food and fuel shortages is another story.
Anyhow, the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has coincided with a senior White House official's announcement in Washington, DC, that Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of President Trump, were returning to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials.
This means that the second round of talks would be held at a lower level, in the absence of Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. They would be expected to join the talks if an agreement is seen as possible. Since Iran has become more influential after 38 days of war, it would surely want to drive a hard bargain.
Meanwhile, I would like to underline two reports I have seen this week that explain some of the unbearable costs of the Iran war. One is a warning by the UN that this war will push more than 30 million people back into poverty and increase food insecurity in the coming months. The other is about the incredible cost of the war for the US in terms of high-value military equipment.
Alexander De Croo, administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said on Thursday: “Even if the war would stop tomorrow, these effects, you already have them, and they will be pushing back more than 30 million people into poverty”. He warned of other fallouts of the war, including energy shortages and falling remittances.
He said that disruption to fuel and fertiliser supplies due to the blocking of cargo vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has already lowered agricultural productivity and will hit early yields later this year.
A report in The New York Times, quoting administration and congressional officials, said that the Iran war has drained US supplies of critical, costly weapons. Pentagon’s rush to rearm its Mideast forces has made it less ready to confront potential adversaries, such as China and Russia.
Though White House officials have so far refused to estimate the cost of the conflict, two independent groups say the expense is staggering: between $28 billion and $35 billion, just under $1 billion a day. In the first two days alone, the military used $5.6 billion in munitions.
Let me conclude with what Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said this week: “At current production rates, reconstituting what we have expended could take years”.
And yet, America has not attained any of its objectives.
The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached at: [email protected]
