URAAN Pakistan was initiated on December 31, 2024 under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. It aims to address chronic economic challenges and pave the path for sustainable development in Pakistan.
This ambitious initiative intends to achieve multiple targets, including a tremendous investment boost, export promotion, productivity enhancement and becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2035 and beyond. URAAN Pakistan envisages a comprehensive structural transformation with idealistically set key performance indicators (KPIs) and parameters, crucial projects and reforms to achieve these milestones.
This transformative initiative sets forth the 5Es National Economic Transformation Plan and envisions transforming Pakistan’s economy into a diversified and vibrant system to nurture inclusive and sustainable development. The programme ambitiously aims to attain the following key milestones.
First, achieving a sustainable GDP growth of 6.0 per cent by 2028 and creating one million additional jobs annually. Second, attaining sustained 7-8 per cent GDP growth on average till 2035 and reaching figures of a $1 trillion and a $3 trillion economy by 2035 and 2047, respectively.
Third, boosting the investment rate to around 22-25 per cent of GDP, primarily financed through domestic savings; managing the tax-to-GDP ratio up to 16–18 per cent; securing a merchandise exports-to-GDP ratio of 16-19 per cent; and containing inflation to single digits. Fourth, aiming to attract and secure a target of $10 billion in FDI per annum and raise annual exports to $60 billion, focusing on specialised services and commodity-producing sectors, notably IT, manufacturing, agriculture, minerals, and the blue economy, to rebrand ‘Made in Pakistan’ as a global standard for quality.
The plan also targets increasing public social sector spending up to 7-8 per cent of GDP, and investment in human capital to enhance the quality and productivity of the national workforce. It also intends to support small businesses, promote entrepreneurship, technological advancements and market diversification and foster a conducive environment for innovation and job creation.
Surely, the dream of sustained inclusive development cannot come true without realising human potential. Pertinently, the programme aspires to create a just society by increasing universal health coverage, raising the female labour force participation rate, empowering women and reducing youth unemployment. Operationally, the National Economic Transformation Unit (NETU) is established to execute the 5Es Plan through a collective network and collaborative work of key stakeholders, including government agencies, private sector entities, academic institutions and international partners.
However, the question is whether the plan is realistic and whether such an economic turnaround can be effectively materialised. Despite its theoretical strengths, there are several reasons for URAAN Pakistan to be an overambitious plan, given the prevailing geopolitical situation, economic setup, structural imbalances, rising climatic shocks and environmental vulnerability, consumption- and aid-led growth, an import-based economy, prevalent boom-and-bust cycles, a surge in overall and youth unemployment at the outset of the plan, low labour and total factor productivity and institutional capacity issues. Against this backdrop, achieving the proposed targets seems highly ambitious.
Ideally, propelling private domestic investment, mainly financed through indigenous resources, should be encouraged and promoted to complement and synergise foreign investment. The fiscal deficit also needs to be curtailed and maintained below 4.0 per cent of GDP to avoid crowding out private investment. Notably, Pakistan’s private sector should form joint ventures with regional counterparts and be integrated into the global value chain, focusing on agriculture, aerospace, chemical and light engineering sectors.
Undeniably, the success of the programme hinges far more on disciplined execution of the framework, financing realities, enhancing institutional capacity and improved governance than on the rhetoric of targets. More realistically, it may achieve half of its milestones, provided there is political stability, low geopolitical risk, reform continuity and regulatory ease.
A well-coordinated institutional mechanism involving federal and provincial authorities, as well as practical engagement of key stakeholders, including field experts and the business community, is crucial for effective execution and implementation. Otherwise, it risks becoming another well-intentioned plan undermined by financing gaps and implementation shortfalls.
Deliberate efforts towards more reforms and fewer regulations are required to turn this comprehensive and holistic development dream into a reality by prioritising sustainable energy solutions, proactive climate action, indigenisation and a broader export base, decentralised mechanisms free from elite capture and a supportive business ecosystem.
The writer is a director at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, Pakistan. He can be reached at: [email protected]
