KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain trading in narrow ranges against the dollar in the coming sessions, driven by positive sentiment amid healthy remittances and anticipated loan disbursement from the International Monetary Fund.
In the interbank market, the rupee closed at 279.07 against the dollar on Monday but ended at 279.01 on Friday.
“As projected, the rupee has traded slightly firm,” said Tresmark in a client note on Saturday.
“The earlier market noise around a sharp devaluation, driven by geopolitical tensions and upcoming Eurobond/UAE repayments, appears to have died down,” it said.
“What many analysts continue to miss is that the currency is no longer just an economic indicator, it has become a policy variable,” it added. “The mechanism of control has also shifted. It is no longer about aggressive dollar selling but increasingly about managing demand through tighter conditions and administrative discipline.”
The report said that external obligations, particularly the UAE-related repayment, still pose a meaningful challenge in terms of reserve drawdown. However, sentiment in the interbank market remains relatively stable. “Traders point to record remittances of $3.83 billion in March and the recent IMF staff-level agreement as key anchors supporting the current FX outlook, with adequate interest rate flexibility helping keep a lid on the rupee volatility.”
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan increased by $19 million to $16.4 billion during the week ending April 3. The country’s total liquid foreign reserves rose by $105 million to $21.895 billion. The reserves of commercial banks also increased by $87 million to $5.495 billion.
