MORE than three weeks of unrelenting US and Israeli airstrikes have severely weakened Tehran’s military, but what remains of its vast missile arsenal is being used more efficiently from hard-to-reach bases in eastern Iran, reports Bloomberg.
In the latest example, strikes over the weekend against Israel injured more than 100. Targets included the city of Dimona, home to the country’s main nuclear research facility, and most likely involved Khorramshahr missiles, which have among the longest ranges and heaviest payloads in Iran’s arsenal, said Decker Eveleth, a research analyst at CNA Corp., a not-for-profit research and analysis organization in Washington, DC.
The US and Israel have estimated they have destroyed about two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the regime’s offensive capability has been reduced by 90 per cent. Still, Tehran has continued to hit targets around the Gulf, with more than 1,200 ballistic missiles and at least 3,300 Shahed rudimentary cruise missiles so far.
Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said analysis of open-source strike data such as videos, images and announcements seemed to show a sharp increase in how effective those attacks have been after about March 10 -- with as many as a quarter of missiles getting through. She cautioned that the picture could change as better information became available.
“A degraded Iran firing fewer and better aimed missiles and drones at carefully selected, fixed targets is getting more effective at imposing costs,” Grieco said. “In terms of how many are getting through, the trajectory is moving in the wrong direction.”
An Israeli estimate put Iran’s arsenal at up to 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war started February 28. US and Israeli strikes have taken aim at those stockpiles while also prioritizing the destruction of launchers to prevent using whatever missiles remain.
The number of ballistic missiles fired at Gulf targets has stabilized at an average of about 21 a day over the last three days, said Becca Wasser, defence lead at Bloomberg Economics.
Last week, Iran attempted a strike on Diego Garcia, a joint UK-US base about 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) away in the Indian Ocean, using a prototype or modified ballistic missile, or a space launcher such as its Zoljanah booster that was adapted into a weapon. It has also attacked other Gulf states with older, less accurate and more numerous missiles such as its Fateh-110 and Fateh-313, which both have ranges of a few hundred kilometers, and Shahed-136 low-tech cruise missiles.
Iran still has more advanced weapons available and is finding more effective ways to use them, including attacking fewer military targets or probing for weaker defenses, said Nicole Grajewski, a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Despite three weeks of sustained aerial attacks, Iran can still inflict pain around the region.
Khorramshahr missiles have often been used with cluster munitions that disperse at high altitudes -- reducing explosive power but making interception difficult -- but can carry an enormous 1,500 kilogram unitary warhead. Crucially, their 2,500 kilometre range means they can be based in eastern Iran, making them less vulnerable to US and Israeli airstrikes, Eveleth said. Bases for newer, solid-fuelled missiles with high accuracy are largely in the western part of the country and have been hit repeatedly.
“What we’re seeing operationally is a shift toward smaller salvo sizes, but with non-trivial impact rates,” Grajewski said. “That’s notable because Iran’s prior approach emphasized saturation to overwhelm air defences.”
Attacks on energy and oil infrastructure have increased while military targets seem to be attacked more opportunistically, she said. Iran has hit the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, as well as at least three expensive radar systems and five aerial tankers standing in Saudi Arabia.
There are too many variables to say what exactly might be causing more missiles to leak through, Eveleth said. A shortage of interceptors, damaged radars, different trajectories and attack directions, and target selection could all contribute. President Donald Trump has also said that Russia intelligence may be helping Iran, although he didn’t offer specifics.
Other advanced designs include Kheybar Shekan or Fattah-1 missiles, both of which use solid propellant, making them easier to fire on short notice. The Fattah has a manoeuvring warhead designed to evade defences and hit house-size targets. It’s also reported to have a booster rocket for the final moments of its attack for extra speed that reduces reaction time.
None of Iran’s missiles are as advanced as those of China or Russia, which also have large conventional ballistic missile arsenals. But missiles such as the Fattah are capable of manoeuvring in the atmosphere at high speeds on a trajectory between where high altitude and low altitude missile defences are most effective.
