Islamabad:Syed Mohammed Osama Rizvi, Global Market and Product Strategist at Primary Vision, said the country’s refining configuration is misaligned with demand.
S Rizvi was addressing a webinar on “Rising energy costs and the future of sustainable industry in Pakistan” was organised here by Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI). S Rizvi said most refineries still operate on outdated hydro-skimming technology, producing furnace oil rather than high-demand fuels such as high-speed diesel, leaving the economy reliant on imports for 40–45 percent of refined products.
Dr Sajid Amin Javed, SDPI Deputy Executive Director, said there is an uncertainty about oil prices fluctuation and availability. Markets now anticipate three possible trajectories: a 50% probability of prices reaching $130-150/bbl in the near term, a 10-20% chance that they will maintain this level for 6-8 months, and a 30-40% likelihood of stabilising around $110-120/bbl (with most likely $110 as the expected average). For Pakistan, he said, this could cause 10-12% inflation, increase in import bill by roughly $6 billion, and slowdown in GDP growth to 2.5-2.8%, while prolonged LNG disruptions, particularly given reliance on Qatari supply would place additional pressure on energy-intensive industries.
Saleha Qureshi from SDPI noted that LNG prices surged to $15.77 per mmbtu and Pakistan imports approximately 80 per cent of liquid fuels and 20 per cent of its power mix increasing the system’s vulnerability. Rising petrol prices, with the recent hike of around Rs55 per litre, already pushed logistics costs up by 12 per cent, creating a ‘triple shock’ for industries from electricity tariffs, gas prices, and feedstock costs.
Sheikh Mohammed Iqbal, former CEO, Pakistan Textile Council, said rising energy costs coupled with taxes threaten competitiveness in trade against regional peers such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. He stressed that for Pakistan to compete, electricity must become cheaper and more predictable, with tariff rationalisation, reduced inefficiencies, grid upgrades for reliability and accelerated adoption of renewables, energy storage, and electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure to lower long-term costs, support jobs and enhance industrial and transport sector competitiveness.
Muhammad Abdul Rafay from Alternate Law Collective said industries cannot be forced to choose between an unreliable grid and costly captive power. He stressed that long-term planning and not short-term cost-shifting is essential, with a flexible, investable grid, transparent pricing and rules enabling efficient load management and renewable integration. He also noted a misalignment between national electricity reforms and the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF), creating policy uncertainty for investors and industries making long-term energy transition decisions.
Manzoor Ahmed Alizai from Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED), outlined a two-track approach, ie, rationalisation of industrial tariffs and integration of renewable energy, ensuring the grid is strengthened and market rules allow reliable access to competitively priced electricity. Ubaid ur Rehman Zia from SDPI also spoke on the occasion.
