LAHORE: Final cotton arrivals for the 2025-2026 season have conclusively highlighted provincial performance shifts from Punjab to Sindh, showing an overall stagnating national growth.
According to consolidating data of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) up to February 28, the total national cotton production reached 5.61 million bales, marking a marginal year-on-year (YoY) increase of 1.6 per cent over the 5.52 million bales recorded in the previous season.
This bare minimum net gain indicates a significant divergence in provincial performance where the traditional dominance of Punjab province has been challenged by a more resilient output from Sindh.
In Punjab, arrivals at ginning factories reached a final tally of 2.69 million bales, reflecting a real-term decrease of 0.06 million bales or 2.2 per cent compared to the 2.75 million bales recorded during the same period last year. This downturn is attributed to significant contractions in 11 out of 21 districts, with Lodhran and Muzaffargarh posting the sharpest declines of 75 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively. The declining trend in Punjab is particularly concerning given its historical role as the primary supplier of up to two third crop size for the domestic textile industry, pointing towards systemic challenges in its agricultural belt.
In sharp contrast to the contraction seen in the north, Sindh demonstrated growth as arrivals increased from 2.82 million bales in the prior season to 2.95 million bales this year, representing a real-term addition of 0.13 million bales and a healthy percentage growth of 4.6 per cent. Balochistan also maintained its presence within the national production landscape, contributing approximately 0.19 million bales of high-quality cotton, reflecting its emerging potential as a new frontier for cotton cultivation.
As far as national production shares at the close of the season are concerned, Sindh emerged as the leading contributor by providing 52.6 per cent of the total national crop, while Punjab’s share faltered at 48 per cent and Balochistan’s production represented about 3.4 per cent of the final national volume.
The shift on provincial levels represents a historic pivot in national agricultural dynamics, as Sindh now emerges as the national cotton harvest leader. A breakdown of the 5.61 million bales for 2025-2026 season shows that the textile sector consumed the lion’s share at 5.19 million bales, while exporters and traders picked up 0.18 million bales, leaving a total ending stock of 0.24 million bales held at ginning factories. This ending stock is significantly lower than the 0.37 million bales held at the same time last year, suggesting a much tighter supply-demand balance as the season concludes with only 71 factories remaining in operation across the country.
Interestingly, the monthly flow for February 2026 was remarkably higher at 0.06 million bales compared to the mere 0.01 million bales seen in February 2025, indicating a late-season surge in picking or arrivals from late-sown varieties on the back of warmer weather.
