ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has activated an emergency economic response as escalating tensions in the Gulf threaten to trigger another oil shock for the import-dependent economy.
The Prime Minister’s Office has constituted an 18-member high-powered committee, chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, to monitor petroleum price movements, assess foreign exchange risks and prepare contingency plans. The body will meet daily, effectively creating an energy “war-room” to manage potential fallout.
The committee includes the ministers for petroleum and power, the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, senior officials from finance, petroleum and power divisions, regulators and heads of key state-run energy firms.
Its mandate covers tracking forward and futures oil prices, reviewing supply-chain stability, assessing short- and medium-term foreign exchange implications and conducting fiscal impact analysis in the event of a prolonged regional confrontation.The move follows heightened tensions after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have intensified concerns over shipping risks in critical maritime chokepoints.
At the centre of global anxiety is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and a significant share of LNG trade passes. Analysts warn that any sustained disruption could send Brent crude — already hovering above $78 per barrel — sharply higher, potentially into the $100-$150 range.
Pakistan sources LNG primarily from Qatar, diesel from Kuwait and crude oil from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, with most shipments transiting Hormuz.Officials said two crude oil tankers, including one operated by the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, are currently stranded in or near the strait, while another cargo at the loading stage is unlikely to sail under prevailing conditions. LPG imports have also been curtailed, raising the prospect of domestic price pressures. Two LNG cargoes that crossed Hormuz before the escalation are expected to arrive shortly, offering only temporary relief.
At its first meeting, chaired by Aurangzeb at the Finance Division, the committee reviewed stock levels, freight and insurance costs, alternative sourcing routes, LNG and LPG shipment schedules and potential demand-management measures.
The government maintains that petroleum stocks remain at “comfortable levels” and there is no immediate supply stress. Aurangzeb directed agencies to verify inventories, intensify coordination and closely monitor shipments and storage, while emphasising the need to maintain market confidence and orderly conditions.
Energy experts caution, however, that Pakistan’s heavy reliance on imported fuels leaves it acutely exposed to maritime disruptions. A sustained spike in crude prices or war-risk insurance premiums could inflate the import bill, strain foreign exchange reserves and complicate inflation management.
