After 18 months of a caretaker government, general elections and a referendum were held in Bangladesh on February 12.
Contrary to projections that predicted a neck-and-neck contest between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and an alliance of Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the National Citizens Party (NCP), the BNP secured a two-thirds majority, while the alliance won 73 of 297 contested seats. While the alliance accepted the election results and pledged to play a constructive opposition role, the post-election scenario is marred by several issues, including the future of the referendum results, a severe economic crisis and the absence of the former ruling party, the Awami League, from the political scene.
Bangladesh’s transition to democracy and stability is an uphill task. Despite securing a landslide victory amid allegations of irregularities in several constituencies, Prime Minister Tarique Rehman reached out to both JI and the NCP for a future working relationship and sought their cooperation. Political observers describe this as a ‘honeymoon’ period for the BNP. Armed with a two-thirds majority, the BNP is of the view that, while it has a strong political footing, it should remain humble with the opposition and focus on the economy, political stability, and foreign policy challenges.
Yet Bangladesh may soon grapple with political crises and instability if the BNP refuses to incorporate the referendum into the constitution. Although the BNP signed the ‘July Charter,’ which formed the basis of the referendum, it is reluctant to approve clauses such as restricting the term of the prime minister and electing members of the proposed upper house by proportional representation. While BNP assembly members refused to take the oath under the referendum provisions, Jamaat and NCP members took the oath but boycotted Tarique Rehman’s oath-taking ceremony as prime minister.
Whether Bangladesh moves toward democracy, political pluralism, good governance, and stability depends on how it addresses the issues emerging in the post-election period. The Jamaat-NCP alliance remains uneasy about election results that contradicted Gallup Poll predictions of a close contest. Jamaat has complained of irregularities in 33 constituencies, claiming it was deprived of the opportunity to secure 100 seats. The NCP’s performance was disappointing, as it won only seven seats.
According to a blog by Md Ashequn Nabi Chowdhury in the LSE South Asia Centre, “Political analysts indicate that the ideological shift, characterised by the return of Tarique Rahman after 17 years and the ascendancy of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and influential Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, has dominated the transition effort. This realignment has pulled political gravity significantly to the right, evidenced by social repercussions such as a rise in gender-based violence”. The caretaker government’s banning of the Awami League in May 2025 from participating in political activities deprived Bangladesh’s largest political force of a role in the last elections.
As rightly stated in a newsletter conversation, ‘Bangladesh’s Elections Represent Politics as Usual but Some Hope for the Future’ (February 18, 2026): “The question is: What trajectory does this election set for Bangladesh’s democratic future? In many ways, the election represents both continuity and rupture – distinct in certain respects, yet familiar in others. This election is significant because, for the first time in more than a decade, people were able to cast their ballots in a relatively free and fair environment. The elections held in 2014, 2018, and 2024 during the Awami League’s rule were widely seen as neither free nor fair and were marked by widespread irregularities and intimidation. The 2026 elections were also significant because they included a referendum on the July National Charter. Aimed at incorporating the spirit of the July uprising, the charter adopted 84 proposals based on various reform commissions’ recommendations”.
With voter turnout of around 60 per cent in the elections and 62 per cent voting in favour of the referendum, the credibility of the February 12 elections cannot be undermined. However, it remains to be seen how the youth of Bangladesh, who played an instrumental role in regime change in August 2024, will contribute to democracy, political stability and resistance against corruption and nepotism.
The NCP, which represents Bangladeshi youth, failed to perform strongly, but it will continue to pose a challenge to the new government if Tarique Rehman compromises and resorts to traditional politics by allowing corruption and nepotism.
Bangladesh’s road to democracy and stability must be analysed from three key perspectives.
First is the BNP’s handling of the ban on the Awami League and the demand for the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. It is widely argued that the BNP’s two-thirds majority was partly secured through votes from Awami League supporters. Despite the ban, the Awami League’s vote bank appears to have remained intact, and an alleged understanding may have led its supporters to back the BNP in the hope of leniency and a possible withdrawal of the demand to hand over Sheikh Hasina. If the BNP has indeed assumed power with tacit support from the banned Awami League, this could trigger political instability. Some also argue that India and the US viewed the BNP as a viable option to prevent a Jamaat-led alliance from gaining power.
Second, the BNP’s approach to the July Charter and referendum results will be critical. Although the BNP signed the charter, it has expressed reservations about limiting the prime minister’s term and introducing proportional representation in the proposed upper house. The charter proposed 80 constitutional reforms, including caretaker arrangements before elections and wide-ranging institutional reforms. If the BNP uses its parliamentary strength to delay or dilute these reforms, it could provoke a serious crisis, especially as the Jamaat-led alliance insists on immediate implementation.
Third, regional dynamics will shape political stability. While Jamaat and the NCP may oppose any soft stance towards India, the BNP cannot afford a hardline approach, particularly with the Ganges Water Treaty expiring in December 2026. The coming 100 days will reveal whether the BNP aligns governance with its promises and strengthens democratic stability.
The writer is a meritorious professor of International Relations and a former dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi.
He can be reached at: [email protected]
