KARACHI: Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all of the quantitative performance criteria under its $7 billion programme with the International Monetary Fund, according to a report by brokerage firm Topline Securities, bolstering its position ahead of a review due later this month.
The IMF team is expected to visit in the final week of February for the third review of the Extended Fund Facility and the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The assessment will cover targets set for September and December 2025.
Topline Securities said Pakistan is on track to meet almost all seven quantitative performance criteria, though data for one indicator, the floor on targeted cash transfers, is still awaited. The target was narrowly missed at the previous review by about Rs1 billion.
Failure to meet a quantitative performance criterion typically requires a board-level waiver from the IMF.On external metrics, net international reserves are projected to remain above the programme floors. Reserves are estimated at around negative $6.7 billion against a floor of negative $7 billion for September 2025, and below negative $6 billion against a floor of negative $6.5 billion for December.
The net domestic assets of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) are expected to remain within Rs12.5-13.5 trillion, below the ceiling targets of Rs14.9-15.1 trillion for the two review dates. Foreign currency swaps stood at $2.2 billion and $1.86 billion for September and December, respectively, within programme limits.
Pakistan is also projected to exceed primary surplus targets, with estimates of Rs3.5 trillion and Rs4.1 trillion for September and December, compared with programme ceilings of Rs460 billion and Rs3.2 trillion.
Targets related to government guarantees, social spending floors and new tax return filers are also likely to be met, the brokerage said.However, tax collection by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) fell short of its target by Rs336 billion. While part of the gap could be offset by receipts linked to a court ruling on the super tax, collections are still expected to undershoot the full-year goal, Topline said.
