The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 arrives at a moment when uncertainty has become the defining feature of the international system.
Described as an “Age of Competition”, the current phase is marked by intensifying geoeconomic confrontation, weakening multilateral institutions, deepening societal polarisation, rapid technological acceleration and a growing tendency to prioritise short-term national survival over long-term global cooperation. For Pakistan, these risks are not abstract global projections. They intersect directly with its economy, governance capacity, social cohesion and long-term development trajectory.
The report’s identification of geoeconomic confrontation as the most severe short-term global risk is especially consequential for Pakistan. As trade, finance, technology and supply chains are increasingly weaponised by major powers, countries with limited economic buffers and narrow export bases face heightened exposure.
Pakistan does not shape these confrontations; it absorbs their consequences through volatile energy prices, disrupted supply chains, tighter external financing and reduced policy space. In a world where economic decisions are driven less by efficiency and more by national security logic, the erosion of multilateral trade norms disproportionately disadvantages countries that rely on predictable global rules to remain competitive.
These external pressures converge with what the report describes as an emerging global economic reckoning. Rising debt burdens, inflation risks and the possibility of asset bubbles are now shared global concerns. In Pakistan’s case, however, these risks are magnified by structural fragilities. High public debt, limited fiscal flexibility and recurring balance-of-payments crises make the economy acutely sensitive to global interest-rate movements and shifts in investor sentiment. The report implicitly reinforces a critical lesson: macroeconomic stabilisation is necessary but not sufficient. Without institutional credibility, regulatory predictability and sustained governance reform, Pakistan remains trapped in cycles of crisis driven as much by global shocks as by domestic constraints.
Pakistan’s national risk profile further illustrates the depth of these vulnerabilities. The foremost risk identified is the lack of economic opportunity and unemployment, reflecting a widening disconnect between a rapidly growing youth population and the economy’s limited capacity to generate productive, formal-sector jobs. This disconnect increases the risk of social frustration, political volatility, and outward migration. Closely following are insufficient public services and social protections, including gaps in education, healthcare, infrastructure and pensions, which weaken human capital formation and erode the social contract between citizens and the state.
These economic and social risks are compounded by the growing threat of misinformation and disinformation. In an already polarised environment, distorted narratives undermine trust in institutions, complicate policy implementation, and weaken consensus around reform. Natural resource shortages, particularly food and water insecurity, add another layer of vulnerability, as climate stress, inefficient resource management and population growth strain Pakistan’s agricultural systems and urban resilience. The risk of an economic downturn, whether through recession or prolonged stagnation, acts as a force multiplier, exacerbating unemployment, fiscal stress and inequality while reducing the state’s capacity to respond effectively.
The Global Risks Report also identifies inequality as the most interconnected risk over the next decade, linking it to political instability, institutional erosion, and declining public trust. Pakistan exemplifies this convergence. Inequality is not merely an economic outcome; it fuels polarisation, undermines the legitimacy of reform and limits public tolerance for difficult policy choices. When inequality interacts with weak institutions and inconsistent service delivery, it becomes a structural constraint on governance rather than a challenge that can be addressed through incremental interventions.
Societal polarisation is further intensified by Pakistan’s strained information ecosystem. The report’s emphasis on misinformation and disinformation as a top short-term global risk resonates strongly in a context where digital platforms increasingly shape political behaviour and public perception. Rapid advances in artificial intelligence amplify these challenges through deepfakes, automated propaganda and synthetic content.
While Pakistan has announced a National AI Policy, the challenge lies not in resisting technology but in governing it. Despite policy announcements, the country still lacks a coherent and fully operational national framework capable of managing AI’s economic, social and political implications at scale.
One of the report’s most troubling findings is the short-term deprioritisation of environmental risks, even as they dominate the long-term outlook. For Pakistan, this disconnect is particularly dangerous. Among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, Pakistan continues to face floods, heatwaves, water stress and agricultural disruption that impose high economic and social costs. Climate risk is not a future concern; it is already reshaping infrastructure needs, fiscal planning, food security and internal migration. Any development strategy that treats climate resilience as a secondary risk compounds existing vulnerabilities.
The report’s concept of ‘multipolarity without multilateralism’ captures another structural challenge confronting Pakistan. As global power fragments and international institutions weaken, smaller and middle-income countries face harder choices with fewer safeguards. Strategic ambiguity becomes riskier, diplomatic miscalculations more costly and access to finance and markets increasingly dependent on perceptions of governance quality and institutional reliability. In this environment, Pakistan’s margin for manoeuvre narrows, elevating the importance of economic diplomacy, regional connectivity and credibility with international partners.
Ultimately, the Global Risks Report 2026 makes one reality clear: risk is no longer episodic; it is structural. The convergence of geopolitical rivalry, economic volatility, societal fragmentation, technological disruption and climate stress demands a governance response that is anticipatory rather than reactive. For Pakistan, documenting reforms, strengthening institutions, ensuring regulatory clarity and improving transparency are not narrative exercises. They are strategic tools for risk mitigation in a world where credibility increasingly determines resilience.
Policy takeaway: Pakistan’s central challenge in the age of global competition is not exposure to risk; exposure is unavoidable, but the capacity to govern risk credibly and consistently. Countries that invest in institutional strength, policy coherence, and long-term resilience will retain agency even in a fragmented world. Those that rely on short-term fixes will find their options narrowing.
For Pakistan, the path forward lies in aligning economic reform, social protection, digital governance and climate resilience into a single strategic framework. In an era defined by competition, governance itself has become the most valuable national asset.
The writer is a public policy expert and leads the Country Partner Institute of the World Economic Forum in Pakistan. He tweets/posts @amirjahangir and can be reached at: [email protected]
