KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) enters the coming week with a constructive outlook as improving macro stability, continued IMF engagement and easing fixed income yields are expected to sustain momentum in the KSE-100 Index, according to AKD Research.
The brokerage firm believes confidence will remain intact following the successful third tranche disbursement under the Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility, limited flood-related disruptions and improved credit sentiment from global rating agencies.
The market maintained its bullish tone during the week under review, supported by strong investor optimism after the IMF Executive Board approved disbursements of $1 billion under the EFF and $200 million under the RSF, alongside domestic policy measures that reinforced sentiment, including the Economic Coordination Committee’s decision to link oil marketing company and dealer margins on motor spirit and high-speed diesel to national CPI within a capped band of 5.0 per cent to 10 per cent and the government’s announcement of an incremental electricity package for industrial and agricultural users.
Ali Najib of Arif Habib Limited said the PSX closed the week firmly higher, with the KSE-100 Index gaining 2,779 points, or 1.66 per cent, as the benchmark opened at 167,386 points, tested a weekly high of 170,698 points and ultimately settled at 169,865 points, reflecting consolidation within a positive trend.
Nabeel Haroon of Topline Securities attributed the weekly advance primarily to the IMF Board’s approval of a $1.3 billion loan package, granted alongside waivers for certain unmet conditions, as well as the landmark settlement of Rs659.6 billion in power sector debt, which together improved confidence in fiscal management.
He added that macro indicators during the week sent mixed but broadly supportive signals, with workers’ remittances in November 2025 recorded at $3.2 billion, up 9.0 per cent year-on-year (YoY) though down 7.0 per cent month-on-month (MoM), while automobile sales reported by PAMA reached 15,442 units, showing robust growth of 52 per cent YoY despite an 11 per cent monthly decline.
Market activity also strengthened, with average daily traded volume rising to 1.03 billion shares, up 52 per cent YoY, and average daily value increasing to Rs49.5 billion, up 23 per cent week-on-week (WoW).
Syed Danyal Hussain of JS Research noted that the KSE-100 regained momentum and closed near record territory at around 169,965 points, up roughly 1.7 per cent WoW, as investors welcomed confirmation that Pakistan has met eight of 13 IMF structural benchmarks, alongside the introduction of 11 new benchmarks aimed at sustaining reforms.
He highlighted that while the IMF revised down its GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 3.2 per cent from 3.6 per cent, it improved its fiscal and external sector outlook for subsequent years, which helped offset growth concerns.
Additional support came from the government’s approval of a concessional electricity tariff of Rs22.98 per unit on incremental consumption to spur industry and agriculture, progress on clearing Rs659.6 billion of power circular debt out of a total Rs1.225 trillion, a largely flat T-bill auction where the government raised Rs982 billion, and a marginal increase of $12 million in SBP foreign exchange reserves to $14.6 billion, all of which reinforced expectations that the positive tone could extend into the next week.
