KARACHI: The Supreme Court’s verdict on Friday dismissing the PTI’s petitions seeking access to reserved seats for women and minorities has set off a political domino effect, effectively reconfiguring the balance of power in the National Assembly and triggering speculation about future constitutional shifts and legisla-tive agendas.
While the legal door to reserved seats may have been shut for the PTI, the political windows the verdict opens for the ruling coalition could significantly shape Pakistan’s governance trajectory.
According to Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), the implications are clear and far-reaching. “With Friday’s verdict, the ruling coalition (including PPP) will be able to secure two-thirds majority” in the National Assembly. He notes that the decision will “reduce the dependence of the PML-N on PPP for [a] simple majority in the National Assembly”.
Political analyst and journalist Asma Shirazi concurs, identifying the immediate winners of the verdict. “The main beneficiaries of this verdict have been PML-N and the PPP, especially the PML-N, which had a very thin majority; in fact, they didn’t actually hold a majority without the PPP. So now, the ultimate beneficiary is the PML-N, followed by the PPP and of course JUIF, etc.”
With the strengthened position in parliament, Shirazi observes that the ruling alliance is now “pretty much safe from any inherent dangers. It already has the PPP’s support.” However, she warns that while the federal coalition may now enjoy newfound legislative stability, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly remains a volatile front.
“In KP”, she says, “the composition has changed. Now there is only an 18-member difference between the treasury (PTI) and the opposition. In such a scenario, if there were a vote of no-confidence in the assembly, it wouldn’t be that difficult. So there’s now a constant Sword of Damocles hanging over the KP government”. She adds that KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur appears aware of this precariousness -- “though if the past few days are any indication, it doesn’t look like the KP chief minister will be interfered with, but the sword is still hanging”.
For journalist Majid Nizami, the decision spells the end of legislative gridlock. “The biggest problem was always legislation. It seems the system or the state wasn’t getting the ‘required legislation’. We saw during the whole 26th Amendment fiasco how the government struggled and had to reach out to different parties, agree to demands, make compromises. At times, they also had to face some embarrassing moments of deadlock”.
That bottleneck, he believes, is now broken. “Now the government or the alliance will face no such issues. I am quite convinced that we will see a flood of legislation or amendments so that the state/system can get whatever legal changes it requires”. He also points to long-term implications, especially with the Senate elections. “Now the Senate composition from KP will be distinctly different since the PTI won’t be able to get its senators in the way it did in the past. So the government will not only be comfortable in the National Assembly but also in the Senate.”
This potential for sweeping legislative change raises deeper questions, particularly about civil-military relations. Journalist Hassan Iftikhar sees the evolving scenario as paving the way for controversial constitutional experiments. “Now the biggest possibility is that Gen Jahangir Karamat’s formula may be back in play: that the military gets a constitutional stake in the running of the country. This has also been tried somewhat in the SIFC in a quasi way. So something like this can be legalised”.
He adds that whether such an arrangement is rolled out in one dramatic constitutional amendment or “cushioned in breaks or between amendments is up for debate and strategy, but I would see this as a distinct option”.
Turning back to KP, Iftikhar sees further turbulence ahead, particularly if mass disqualifications occur under the shadow of the May 9 cases. “If members from KP are deseated in large numbers after the May 9 cases, then the situation there really could change drastically. Enough for the government even to change in KP”. According to him, such a move could be calibrated in response to how disruptive KP-based protests or agitation may become.
As for the PPP, there remains little likelihood of it moving to the opposition benches for now. “That”, says Iftikhar, “would depend on whether there is an imminent chance for Bilawal to be PM, because then he may wish to polish himself further as an opposition leader. But I don’t see this anywhere in the works — even though the PPP moving to the opposition might seem like the logical next step.”
