ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Climate Change and Environmental Coordination Musadik Malik Monday said Pakistan was elevating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) issue beyond a bilateral dispute, framing it as a global matter of justice, fundamental rights and the protection of downstream nations’ access to water.
Addressing a joint press conference with Information Minister Attaullah Tarar here, he said Pakistan’s position had been endorsed within the United Nations and international arbitration forums. He issued a strong warning to India, saying Pakistan would not compromise on its share of water and would resist any attempt to block its water resources, adding that Pakistan had made it clear that it would safeguard its water rights.
“Anyone who tries to lay a hand on Pakistan’s water will have to face a strong response,” he said, adding that Pakistan would not accept any move that deprived it of its legitimate share of water. The minister questioned whether countries located upstream had the right to stop the water supply of those living downstream. “Standing up for our rights is part of our tradition,” he added.
Musadik Malik stated that India was backing away from commitments under the Indus Waters Treaty and accused Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of attempting to create a water crisis for Pakistan. “The Indus Waters Treaty is an international agreement and Pakistan has always respected it. However, we will not allow anyone to violate our rights,” he added.
According to the minister, many observers attributed floods and droughts solely to climate change, but argued that another factor also determined whether farmers received water or suffered drought. “There is a tap whose handle is in the hands of the prime minister of our neighbouring country, who says not a single drop of water will be allowed to flow into Pakistan,” he recalled.
According to Malik, between 40pc and 50pc of Pakistan’s population depended on agriculture for employment, the sector contributed between 20pc and 25pc of the country’s economy, and Pakistan’s food security depended entirely on water availability. “Our food security, our economy and the livelihoods of millions are linked to this water,” he said, adding that decisions affecting river flows should not rest in the hands of another country.
He argued that if upstream countries were allowed to stop or manipulate river flows to downstream states, it would create consequences for river systems across the world. “If this becomes acceptable here, what about all the other countries that depend on rivers flowing across borders?” he asked.
Malik said the upcoming seminar on IWT would focus not only on the water treaty with India, but also on justice and fundamental rights. “This conference is about justice,” he said. “This conference is about rights. It will decide whether children living downstream around the world have a right to water.”
Malik said that concerns had previously existed that a series of run-of-the-river hydropower projects could enable India to temporarily retain enough water at critical agricultural periods to damage crops downstream.
He said international rulings had already accepted Pakistan’s position that water storage associated with run-of-the-river projects was subject to technical engineering limits and could not be carried out without restriction.
Malik said recent events had demonstrated that while water could not be withheld indefinitely, even short-term interruptions reinforced earlier concerns regarding the timing of river flows needed for agriculture. He stressed that Pakistan also had a responsibility to improve its own water management by expanding storage and regulating seasonal flows. “The purpose of dams is not merely storage,” he said. “Their purpose is to regulate water so that farmers receive it when crops actually need it.”
Speaking on the occasion, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said the Indus Waters Treaty could not be suspended unilaterally by any party. He said Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal had repeatedly stated that water was a matter of Pakistan’s survival and national security.
Tarar said experts from across the world were arriving to participate in an upcoming conference on water issues, where Pakistan’s position and the importance of the Indus Waters Treaty would be discussed. He added that water security had become a global challenge and Pakistan would continue highlighting its concerns at international forums.
The ministers press conference was held in the wake of increasing Indian infrastructure on western rivers. India has already built a 3,120-megawatt (MW) hydropower network on the western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the IWT and is fast-tracking another 7,250MW of projects on the Chenab basin alone, a development that Pakistani water experts say will significantly strengthen New Delhi’s ability to regulate the timing of water flows into Pakistan and heighten concerns over the country’s water and food security.
Official planning documents and sector experts indicate that India has identified hydropower sites with a cumulative potential of around 20,000MW on the western rivers and is moving to harness these resources after putting the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance on April 23, 2025.
The acceleration of upstream infrastructure has become one of the most significant strategic consequences of India’s decision to suspend the treaty, which for more than six decades governed the sharing of the Indus basin waters between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
India’s operational hydropower projects comprise about 1,980MW on the Chenab River through the Salal, Dulhasti and Baglihar projects, around 1,050MW on the Jhelum basin through Uri-I, Uri-II and Kishanganga, and another 89MW on the main Indus in Ladakh through the Nimoo Bazgo and Chutak projects, taking the total installed capacity on the western rivers to approximately 3,120MW.
Although these projects are predominantly run-of-the-river schemes with relatively small reservoirs, they provide India with the operational capability to regulate downstream releases for periods ranging from several hours to nearly one-and-a-half days during reservoir filling, sediment flushing, maintenance operations and peak electricity generation. Pakistani irrigation experts argue that even such short-term regulation can affect canal operations and water distribution during critical crop sowing and irrigation periods.
However, officials say the real strategic challenge lies in the projects now under construction. India is rapidly constructing the Ratle (850MW), Pakal Dul (1,000MW), Kiru (624MW) and Kwar (540MW) hydropower projects on the Chenab River. According to international media reports, work on these projects gathered pace after New Delhi suspended the practical implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty following the April 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam.
Beyond these projects, India has approved or is pursuing a new generation of larger schemes, including Sawalkote (1,856MW), Kirthai-I (390MW), Kirthai-II (930MW), Dulhasti Stage-II (260MW) and the strategically important Bursar storage project (about 800MW).
Collectively, these projects represent nearly 7,250MW of additional generating capacity on the Chenab basin alone. Once completed, the Chenab river system would host more than 9,200MW of installed hydropower capacity, making it one of India’s largest hydropower corridors.
Experts say the significance of these projects extends well beyond electricity generation. Unlike isolated hydropower stations, a cascade of reservoirs constructed sequentially along the same river allows upstream operators to synchronise releases from one reservoir to another. Such an arrangement enhances India’s ability to regulate the timing, sequencing and magnitude of downstream flows while optimising electricity production.
Water experts believe that once the entire cascade becomes operational, India would acquire substantially greater flexibility to delay releases during reservoir filling, modify river flows for power generation, undertake sediment flushing and maintenance, and release stored water according to operational requirements.
Pakistan’s irrigation authorities fear that such flexibility could become particularly significant during the Kharif and Rabi sowing seasons, when timely river flows are critical for canal operations across Punjab, the country’s principal agricultural province that produces most of Pakistan’s wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane.
India is simultaneously pursuing proposals to maximise utilisation of western river waters within its own territory. These include studies on the proposed Chenab-Beas link tunnel, broader Chenab-Ravi-Beas-Sutlej inter-basin transfer schemes, and expansion of the Ranbir Canal to divert additional water for irrigation before the Chenab enters Pakistan.
Officials familiar with Pakistan’s water sector say these diversion schemes, if eventually implemented alongside the hydropower cascade, would further strengthen India’s capacity to utilise a larger share of the western rivers for domestic requirements while reducing uncontrolled downstream flows.
Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts to challenge India’s suspension of the treaty. The government is preparing to host an international conference on the Indus Waters Treaty in Islamabad, bringing together internationally recognised water experts, engineers, legal scholars and policymakers to examine the legal, technical and geopolitical implications of New Delhi’s decision.
Despite growing concerns, hydrologists point out that India still lacks sufficient live storage capacity to permanently withhold the annual flows of the western rivers allocated to Pakistan. However, they caution that the cumulative effect of multiple reservoirs, storage projects and diversion works would significantly expand India’s operational control over the timing and pattern of water deliveries.
Water policy specialists warn that increasing upstream regulation may not immediately reduce Pakistan’s annual water share but could make irrigation planning considerably more complex, particularly during periods of low river flows or simultaneous reservoir operations.
For Pakistan, where agriculture contributes nearly one-fifth of gross domestic product, employs almost 40 per cent of the labour force and consumes more than 90pc of available freshwater, even temporary disruptions in river flows during sensitive crop stages could have significant economic consequences.
Officials and water experts therefore believe that while India may not acquire the engineering capability to completely stop the western rivers, completion of its ongoing hydropower, storage and diversion programme would provide New Delhi with substantially greater operational leverage over one of Pakistan’s most critical strategic resources—water.
Meanwhile, India continued its water aggression against Pakistan and once again released water into River Chenab without prior notice, which created a low-level flood situation at Head Marala in Pakistan, according to official reports, released on Monday. India opened two gates of the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River.
Sources said additional water was initially released from the Dul Hasti Dam, while the gates of the Baglihar Dam were later opened to facilitate the discharge of the excess water arriving from the upstream reservoir.
According to sources familiar with the situation, the exact volume of water released by India from its dams has not been made public. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) confirmed on Monday that water levels at Head Marala have been rising steadily.
Officials said river inflows at the Head Marala site increased from 41,000 cusecs a day earlier to 62,000 cusecs. The division warned that a low-level flood situation could develop at Head Marala within the next 24 hours if water levels continue to rise.
According to the Flood Forecasting Division, water outflows at Head Marala have also increased considerably, rising from 14,000 cusecs to 35,000 cusecs.
