KARACHI: As Gilgit-Baltistan heads to the polls, the election campaign has crystallised around three competing political narratives -- constitutional rights and representation, development and governance and the fairness of the electoral process -- with analysts predicting a closely fought contest that may ultimately produce a fragmented assembly and coalition government.
The campaign has seen a flurry of visits by national political leaders, including PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and PML-N President Nawaz Sharif.
The contest is being held across 24 constituencies in the region’s 10 districts and comes against the backdrop of longstanding debates over GB’s constitutional status, economic development and political future. The PPP has built its campaign around constitutional and political rights. The PML-N, meanwhile, has centred its campaign on development and infrastructure. The PTI’s campaign has focused on allegations of pre-poll interference and demands for electoral transparency.
Despite the intense campaigning, analysts remain cautious about predicting the outcome.
Talking to The News, journalist Iftikhar Firdous says it is too early to identify a clear winner: “Given the evolving political landscape and the absence of reliable polling data, it remains premature to determine which party currently holds a decisive advantage”.
Amir Hussain is a political analyst based in Gilgit-Baltistan. He too believes the contest is primarily between PPP and PML-N but does not expect either party to secure a majority.
According to him, “The electoral landscape in GB currently appears tilted towards a contest between the PML-N and PPP, primarily because both parties are part of the coalition government at the centre and therefore enjoy stronger organisational backing, administrative influence and access to resources compared to others”.
He feels that at this stage, “the mood on the ground suggests a highly fragmented assembly rather than a decisive mandate for one political force”.
Hussain estimates that the PPP and PML-N could each secure 7-8 seats, while the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) could emerge as an important coalition partner. He says the most likely outcome is a loose coalition arrangement led jointly by the PML-N and PPP, with possible support from the IPP and independents.
While all 24 constituencies are being contested, analysts identify several districts as particularly important.
According to Firdous, “Hunza, Astore, Ghizer and Skardu can change the outcomes”, adding that “The real story will be whether the PPP can convert organisational strength into seats in Gilgit, or the PML-N can revive its traditional pockets, and how PTI-backed independents perform in Astore, Ghizer and parts of Baltistan”.
“If independents win in significant numbers then the post-election coalition phase could become as important as election day itself”, he says.
Firdous also cautions against focusing too heavily on a single district.
Hussain similarly identifies Hunza, Gilgit city constituencies, Diamer, Ghizer, Nagar and urban Skardu seats as key battlegrounds where narrow victory margins and local political dynamics could prove decisive.
“In several areas, the election is less a contest of manifestos and more a battle among competing local power networks aligned with national parties”, he explains.
Nadia S Malik, who heads Geo’s Election Cell, points to several closely watched contests involving current and former political heavyweights. She feels that “some interesting contests are where ex-CMs are contesting”.
Malik highlights former chief minister Hafeezur Rehman’s contest from GBA-2 Gilgit, former chief minister Gulbar Khan’s campaign on an IPP ticket from GBA-18 Diamer and the high-profile race in GBA-13 Astore where Shahida Khursheed, mother of former chief minister Khalid Khursheed, is contesting against former minister Farman Ali of the PML-N.
One of the central questions in the election is how much of the PTI’s support base has survived after the party’s national setbacks.
Firdous argues that the PTI’s inability to contest as a registered party would inevitably affect its prospects. However, Hussain believes support for the party remains stronger than many assume: “The PTI vote bank still appears largely intact in GB despite the party’s national setbacks”.
“However, the party itself is fragmented and contesting mostly through independents, which weakens its organisational strength. Independents are very likely to play a kingmaker role in a fragmented assembly. Post-election alliances may become more important than the election itself”, he adds
Malik also cautions against drawing firm conclusions about the PTI’s support. Per her analysis, “The only real criterion to judge a party’s vote-bank is an election”, noting that the PTI’s vote share rose from less than one per cent in 2009 to 25 per cent in 2020.
Malik also points out that the 2020 election produced an unusual outcome that continues to shape political calculations today. “It was the only time in the three elections held so far where the independents got more votes (30 per cent) than the party winning most seats”.
Analysts say it is very true that GB’s electoral history suggests that voters often align with the party in power at the centre.
Malik points to the region’s electoral history as evidence of that trend: “The political leadership in GB does not hesitate to admit that it suits them to go with the party that is in power in the federation, if people follow their lead then it is likely to hold..This is the reason we saw many winners from last time (both PTI and Independent) have joined PML-N”.
Hussain agrees. “Traditionally, GB has voted for the party ruling at the centre, and the federal establishment still seems interested in seeing a political setup in GB that mirrors the coalition at the federal level. That pattern may broadly continue, though Gen-Z participation and social media activism could slightly disrupt conventional politics”, he says.
Journalist Majid Nizami offers a similar assessment: “The people of GB are wiser but also dependent and helpless in many ways. Which is why they can’t afford to go against the centre (and you can see that in the past three elections)”.
Yet analysts also stress that local candidates often matter more than national parties.
“Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari still carry symbolic influence, but local electables and clan networks often matter more than national charisma in GB politics”, says Hussain.
Firdous points to veteran nationalist politician Nawaz Khan Naji as an example, adding that “Party label matters but individualism also matters on some seats”.
While parties have campaigned heavily on rights, development and electoral fairness, voters appear focused on a broader set of day-to-day concerns.
According to Hussain, the main issues include “constitutional status and political rights, electricity crisis and poor internet/connectivity, unemployment and lack of economic opportunities”.
Malik, however, questions whether the parties have even offered sufficiently detailed plans. “Political parties seem non-serious though and mostly talk rhetoric”, she says. By way of example, she points out that the “PML-N’s manifesto was released only yesterday, while the PPP and PTI haven’t released one yet. This is all one needs to know about [their] seriousness”. She is equally critical of campaign promises.
Meanwhile, climate change has emerged as another issue.
Journalist Zia ur-Rehman, who has covered elections across the country, lays it out clearly: arguing that “the priorities of the three major political parties are more about one-upmanship and less or no focus on the pressing issue GB faces: climate change and its consequences”.
Hussain, however, believes climate-related concerns are gradually entering GB’s political debate, particularly among younger voters and civil society groups. Voting will be held on Sunday, June 7 across Gilgit-Baltistan’s 24 constituencies.
