GILGIT-BALTISTAN is set to go to the polls on June 7, to elect its 4th Legislative Assembly. The 2009 Gilgit-Baltistan (Empowerment and Self-Governance) Order, issued by President Asif Ali Zardari, was intended to grant the region autonomy to govern itself.
The first elections for the Gilgit Baltistan Legislative Assembly were held in November 2009. The PPP claimed victory with 14 seats with a vote share of 33 per cent, Independents claimed 3 seats with 28 per cent vote share, and the PML-N could only grab 2 seats with its 17 per cent vote share.
In 2015, the positions switched. The PML-N took 14 seats with a 33 per cent vote share, whereas the PPP could only pocket one with an 18 per cent vote share. Independents again won 3, but their vote share dropped to 15 per cent, influential factors being the 11 per cent vote share taken by the PTI for its 1 seat, and the entry of MWM with 2 seats and 10 per cent vote share.
In the 2020 general elections, the PTI came out on top with 10 seats, PPP and PML-N grabbed 3 and 2 seats respectively. Independent candidates secured 7 seats, while the MWM and JUI-F each secured 1 seat. The vote percentage pattern once again repeated itself, with the PTI taking 25 per cent of the vote share and independents 30 per cent. The PPP and PML-N got 21 and 10 per cent share respectively. The seat and vote-share pattern highlights the influence of the federal government on the outcome of GB elections, a pattern that has remained uniform since the days of the Advisory Council.
In GB, there are 963,034 registered voters, 506,097 male and 456,937 female, a 29 per cent increase since 2020. The gender gap between male and female voters has reduced to 4 per cent from 8 per cent in 2020. Despite a visible increase in population, as reflected in the rise in registered voters, there has been no new delimitation in the region since 1994. An Election Commission source attributed it to the region’s census being kept confidential.
The percentage of female candidates, however, remains low. Among close to 400 candidates in 24 constituencies, only 8 are women, only 3 are contesting on a party ticket, one each for the PPP, IPP and Pakistan Nazriyati Party. The pattern has been the same in previous elections, with 4 female contestants in 2009, 3 in 2015 and 4 in 2020.
Among the major parties, the PPP has fielded 23 candidates, followed by the PML-N with 22 and IPP with 15. The PML-N and Pakistan Nazaryati Party have fielded 11 and 10 candidates respectively, while Islami Tehreek Pakistan has fielded 10 and JUI-F has fielded 9 candidates. The MWM has fielded 7 candidates, while JI and MQM each have 6. 68 per cent of candidates are contesting independently. The PTI, through a seat adjustment with MWM (on 4 seats) has fielded its candidates in 23 out of 24 constituencies.
Among the interesting contests, ex-CM Hafeez ur Rehman is contesting against Jameel Ahmed (ex-deputy speaker) from GBA-2 Gilgit. Both have contested all three elections held so far. From GBA-5 Nagar, ex-finance minister Javed Ali Manwa, who won independently last time and joined the PTI government, is now representing the PML-N against Prince of Nagar Qasim Ali of Islami Tehreek Pakistan.
Another ex-CM Gulber Khan, who formed a forward bloc in the previous assembly and became chief minister, is contesting on an IPP ticket from GBA-18 Diamer against Kifyat ur Rehman of the PML-N, who is the son of former speaker Malik Muhammad Miskeen. From GBA-7 Skardu, ex-governor Raja Jalal Hussain of IPP is contesting against Syed Tauqeer Mehdi of the PPP, the son of current governor Mehdi Shah. Ex-senior minister Akbar Taban of the PML-N is also in the race.
In GBA-10 Skardu, Wazir Hassan, who was expelled from the PTI for forming a forward bloc, and recently left PPP to join the PML-N, is contesting the last election’s winner Raja Nasir Ali Khan, who is now a PPP candidate.
In GBA-13 Astore, the contest is hot as Shahida Khursheed, mother of ex- CM Khalid Khursheed, takes on ex-minister Farman Ali of the PML-N, who won the by-election here after the disqualification of her son.
In Ghizer from GBA-19, the nationalist leader and former winner will take on Syed Jalal Shah of the PPP, son of ex-governor Karam Ali Shah. In 2009, when the ordinance was passed to ensure greater autonomy, people hoped their issues would be resolved, but 17 years on, the problems in Gilgit-Baltistan seem to be worsening. With no political party having come up with a manifesto yet, little is expected to change.
