KARACHI: Petrol prices are estimated to rise by Rs4.75 per litre, while high-speed diesel (HSD) is expected to remain largely stable in the next pricing review, provided the government does not impose additional petroleum levy.
Latest internal calculations by the oil industry indicate an increase in petrol prices for the upcoming cycle, while HSD is likely to see minimal change in the absence of foreign exchange adjustments.
For petrol (PMG), the ex-refinery price is projected to increase by about Rs4.75 per litre, from Rs270.03 to Rs274.77. The main driver is a higher international Free on Board (FOB) price, which rose from $139.03 to $143.01 per barrel. A slight decline in premiums and incidental costs offered limited relief but was insufficient to offset the overall increase. The removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil (PSO) adjustment of Rs1.41 per litre also contributed to the net rise.
In contrast, HSD prices are expected to edge up marginally by Rs0.20 per litre, from Rs334.74 to Rs334.93. Although the international FOB price for diesel increased sharply, from $160.41 to $172.99 per barrel, this was largely offset by a significant reduction in customs duty and incidental costs.
Customs duty alone fell by more than Rs20 per litre, playing a key role in stabilising the final price. The exchange rate remained broadly unchanged during the review period, hovering around Rs278.9 per US dollar, limiting its impact on pricing.
Industry officials said petrol consumers are likely to feel the immediate impact of rising global gasoline prices, while diesel users may benefit from policy adjustments that have softened the effect of international market volatility.
They added that final consumer prices will depend on government decisions on taxes, levies and any exchange rate adjustments before the official notification.
