Islamabad:A new study by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) finds no evidence of backlash, loss of empowerment, or deterioration in household well-being after women exit the Pakistan’s flagship social protection Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).
The study titled “When cash stops: what happens when women suddenly stop receiving cash transfers?” and authored by Dr Nasir Iqbal, Amen Jalal, Mahreen Mahmud and Kate Vyborny addresses a critical gap in global policy research: while much is known about the benefits of entering cash transfer programmes, very little is understood about what happens when payments stop.
The research leverages a unique policy moment—BISP’s nationwide recertification based on an updated Proxy Means Test (PMT). In 2022, many previously eligible households became ineligible overnight, creating a natural comparison between women who continued receiving transfers and those who lost eligibility despite prior participation.
Focusing on households near the eligibility cutoff in Layyah district, the study employs a rigorous regression discontinuity design combined with panel data to isolate the causal effects of programme exit. One year after exiting BISP, the study finds no increase in intimate partner violence, no deterioration in marital relationships or mental health, no decline in women’s decision-making power or mobility, no reduction in women’s economic participation and no negative effects on children’s schooling or labour. The results are precise enough to rule out even modest negative impacts on key indicators of women’s empowerment.
Cash transfers to women are widely recognised for improving agency, bargaining power and welfare, but policymakers long worried that these gains might reverse once transfers stop, potentially triggering household conflict or social backlash.
This study challenges that assumption, suggesting that empowerment gains may persist beyond the life of the transfer, possibly due to learning and habit formation within households, lasting recognition of women’s financial role and adjustment through other income sources. Importantly, even though BISP payments were often the only income directly controlled by women, they constituted a relatively small share of total household expenditure, allowing households to adjust without destabilising gender dynamics.
For policymakers in Pakistan and beyond, the results carry significant weight. Recertification and graduation processes can proceed without fear of immediate gender backlash, costly protective interventions for exiting beneficiaries may not be necessary on gender grounds alone, and programme design can focus more confidently on targeting efficiency. However, PIDE researchers caution that these findings are context-specific: they apply to households near the eligibility cutoff rather than the ultra-poor, cover only a one-year window rather than long-term outcomes, and economic adjustments within households remain harder to measure precisely.
