LAHORE: A fresh push to export ‘surplus’ sugar despite potential shortages has sparked debate on balancing industry interests with national food security concerns.
It is learnt that sugar industry is currently exploring move to export approximately one million tons of sugar to the Gulf and other international markets, citing a total production of 7.21 million tons for the current season. According to the latest data released by the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PASMA) on March 15, 2026, Punjab led production with 4.83 million tons, followed by Sindh at 1.93 million tons and KP at 452,315 tons.
PSMA Chairman Ch Zaka Ashraf says sugar production is expected to reach 7.5 million tons by end of current season, creating a surplus of one million tons. He suggests the government either allows export to avoid losses or buys the surplus, citing the government’s ‘failed’ import decision last year that cost Rs6.0 billion to national exchequer after allowing exports.
Ashraf advocates for deregulation of sugar sector, allowing the industry to operate independently purely on economics. On the other hand, market insiders expressed a cautious approach to deal with the demand and supply situation. While the industry portrays a significant surplus against an annual domestic demand of 6.5 million tons, a closer examination of the actual stock levels and consumption patterns reveals a much more precarious situation for the country’s food security, said insiders.
As of mid-March, the total physical stock across the country stands at 5,002,721 tons, a figure that critics argue is insufficient to carry the nation through to the next crushing season. With approximate domestic sugar consumption of 0.541 million tons a month, the country requires roughly 4.33 million tons just to meet basic domestic needs until the next harvest begins on November 15, 2026.
Story does not end here. When the mandatory 0.7 million ton strategic reserve required to prevent hoarding and market manipulation is added to this requirement plus 0.3 million tons for supply chain absorption, the total necessary stock stands at 5.33 million tons. This leaves the nation with a projected deficit of over 300,000 tons, directly contradicting the industry’s claims of an “excessive” surplus available for export.
This move has raised serious alarms among consumer rights groups and economic analysts who point to the “export trauma” of 2025 as a cautionary tale. Last year, the government allowed large-scale exports that quickly led to domestic shortages, forcing the state to spend precious foreign exchange to import sugar at higher international rates while local retail prices spiked toward Rs200 per kg.
Critics argue that the industry is once again prioritising short-term export profits over the needs of local consumers, effectively gambling with the country’s stability to reap higher margins in the global market.
The federal government now faces a difficult policy choice between supporting the industry’s liquidity and protecting the domestic consumer from inflation. If the government yields to the sugar lobby and allows one million tons to leave the country, it risks a repeat of the 2025 crisis, where the public was forced to bear the burden of an artificial shortage.
As the debate intensifies, the decision will hinge on whether the state chooses to prioritize the 6.5 million tons of annual domestic demand or allows the industry to manufacture another national crisis for private gain, warn market insiders. With current stocks already failing to meet the combined requirement of consumption and strategic reserves, any move towards exports could leave the exhaust the food basket long before the next harvest, they added.
Meanwhile, sugar trader predicts next year’s crop will likely keep cane prices below Rs300-350 per maund for growers, citing preliminary estimates. To support farmers, the government should buy 0.7 million tons sugar for establishing strategic reserves from the current produce or allow exports out of this stock.
When contacted, both federal minister for national food security and Punjab adviser to CM on Commodity Management did not comment on industry’s push to allow sugar export.
