Statecraft has always evolved alongside technology. The compass enabled maritime empires, industrial machinery powered economic dominance and nuclear weapons reshaped global deterrence.
In the twenty-first century, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as the next transformative force in how states govern, compete, and exercise influence.
Unlike earlier technological revolutions, AI is not confined to a single sector. It cuts across defence, diplomacy, economics, information, governance and social management. It processes massive volumes of data, detects patterns invisible to human analysts, and predicts outcomes with growing accuracy. As a result, the nature of power itself is changing. Countries that master AI will shape global rules, while those that lag risk strategic dependence.
For Pakistan, this shift carries profound implications. At its core, AI alters how governments make decisions. Traditional policymaking relies heavily on historical data, bureaucratic analysis, and political judgement. AI introduces the possibility of predictive governance. Governments can simulate policy scenarios before implementation, anticipate economic fluctuations and detect emerging risks.
Leading countries are already moving in this direction. AI systems are being used to forecast economic trends, manage public services and optimise urban infrastructure. Pakistan’s governance structure, however, still relies largely on fragmented data systems and manual processes. Ministries often operate with incomplete information and policy planning frequently reacts to crises rather than anticipating them. AI could significantly strengthen this system by integrating data across institutions and enabling evidence-based decision-making.
Consider taxation and fiscal management. Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has long struggled to exceed 10 per cent, largely due to inefficiencies in revenue collection and widespread informality in the economy. AI-based data analytics could help identify hidden economic activity, detect fraud and improve compliance through predictive risk modelling.
Similarly, AI could transform disaster management. Pakistan remains one of the countries most vulnerable to climate-related disasters, particularly floods and extreme weather events. Machine-learning models capable of analysing satellite imagery, climate data and river flow patterns could significantly enhance early warning systems and emergency planning.
Beyond governance, AI is also reshaping national security. Intelligence agencies across the world are increasingly using machine learning to analyse large volumes of open-source data, satellite imagery and communications metadata. The objective is not simply to gather information but to generate actionable insights faster than adversaries.
This acceleration of decision-making is critical. In earlier decades, geopolitical crises unfolded over days or weeks. Today, cyber threats, disinformation campaigns, and financial shocks can escalate within hours. AI provides the analytical speed necessary to operate in such an environment.
Military applications are also expanding rapidly. Autonomous drones, intelligent surveillance platforms and predictive logistics systems are already being deployed in modern warfare. AI can help military planners simulate conflict scenarios, identify vulnerabilities and optimise force deployment. For Pakistan, a country operating in a complex regional security environment, integrating AI into defence planning is becoming increasingly important. Strategic competitors are investing heavily in intelligent systems that enhance battlefield awareness and cyber capabilities. Failing to keep pace could widen technological asymmetries that shape future security dynamics.
Diplomacy is another domain undergoing transformation. Foreign ministries worldwide are adopting AI tools to monitor global public opinion, analyse geopolitical trends, and detect disinformation campaigns. Digital diplomacy now relies heavily on data analytics to understand narratives shaping international discourse. Artificial intelligence can also assist diplomats in negotiations. By analysing historical agreements, economic indicators, and political risk factors, AI systems can generate predictive insights about negotiation outcomes. Such tools do not replace human diplomacy, but they enhance the informational advantage available to policymakers.
At the same time, AI itself has become a central subject of diplomacy. Countries are negotiating international frameworks governing AI ethics, data sovereignty, export controls and algorithmic standards. The emerging competition between the US, China and EU over AI governance illustrates how technological standards are becoming instruments of geopolitical influence.
This phenomenon is sometimes described as ‘algorithmic sovereignty’. States increasingly seek to control their digital infrastructure, data ecosystems, and AI capabilities to preserve strategic autonomy. For Pakistan, this raises a critical policy question: will the country become an AI technology developer or remain a consumer of systems designed elsewhere?
Despite growing interest in artificial intelligence, Pakistan’s national AI ecosystem remains in its early stages. The country announced a National AI Policy in recent years, even celebrated the Indus AI week last month, but progress in implementation has been slow. Investments in high-performance computing, large-scale data infrastructure, and AI research remain limited.
Universities across Pakistan produce talented engineers and data scientists, yet many of them pursue careers abroad due to limited domestic opportunities. Bridging this gap requires stronger collaboration between academia, industry, and government.
Another challenge lies in institutional coordination. AI policy currently spans multiple ministries and agencies, including information technology, education, commerce and defence. Without a centralised governance structure, efforts risk fragmentation and duplication.
Pakistan’s strategic approach to AI must therefore move beyond isolated initiatives. Artificial intelligence should be treated as a national capability, comparable to energy security or industrial policy. The first priority is digital infrastructure. AI development requires powerful computing resources and large datasets. Establishing national data centres and high-performance computing facilities will be essential for building domestic AI capacity.
Second, Pakistan should integrate AI into public-sector governance. Ministries responsible for finance, planning, climate and security could deploy AI-driven analytical platforms to support policymaking. Such tools would enhance transparency, improve efficiency and strengthen institutional decision-making.
Third, the country must invest in human capital. AI education should be expanded across universities and technical institutes, while incentives should be created to retain skilled researchers and entrepreneurs. Fourth, Pakistan needs an active diplomatic strategy on AI governance. Global debates on AI standards, data flows and digital trade will shape the rules of the emerging digital economy. Participating in these discussions will ensure that Pakistan’s interests are represented. Finally, the leadership of both government and industry must recognise that AI is no longer a niche technological sector. It is becoming a foundational layer of economic and geopolitical power.
The global balance of influence is increasingly determined not only by natural resources or industrial capacity but by control over data, algorithms and computing infrastructure. Countries that develop these capabilities will define the rules of the digital age.
Pakistan stands at a critical juncture. The country has a young population, a growing technology sector, and a strategic location linking major regional markets. With the right policies, it could position itself as a significant participant in the AI-driven global economy. But the window of opportunity may not remain open indefinitely. Technological revolutions tend to produce early leaders and long-term followers. If Pakistan delays its transition to the era of intelligent governance, it risks becoming dependent on external technological ecosystems.
Artificial intelligence is not simply another innovation cycle. It is rewriting the grammar of statecraft. Countries that understand this shift and act accordingly will shape the next chapter of global power.
The writer is a public policy expert and leads the Country Partner Institute of the World Economic Forum in Pakistan. He tweets/posts @amirjahangir and can be reached at: [email protected]
