The United States is dominating the skies above Iran. But math is not necessarily on America’s side. Iran is using low-cost drones for precision attacks in the Middle East. The United States and its allies have air defense systems capable of intercepting a vast majority of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, which are sophisticated yet costly, The New York Times reported. “It is definitely more expensive to shoot down a drone than to put a drone in the sky,” said Arthur Erickson, the chief executive and a co-founder of Hylio, a drone manufacturer in Texas. “It’s a money game. The cost ratio per shot, per interception, is at best 10 to one. But it could be more like 60 or 70 to one in terms of cost, in favor of Iran.”
Iran has fired off more than 2,000 one-way drones since the United States and Israel started attacking it on Saturday, and some reached their targets, despite billion-dollar air defense systems. It’s a looming problem — not just in the Middle East, but everywhere. In a world where attack drones are cheap, and defending against them expensive, the bill could become unsustainable over time.
What makes Iranian drones so effective?
Iran’s Shahed drones are triangle-shaped loitering munitions, roughly 11 feet long, that roar like lawn mowers and carry an explosive payload in their nose that detonates when they crash into their targets. They are small enough to be launched from the back of a truck, making them relatively easy to hide and tough to hunt down. The long-range version of the Shahed drone, known as the 136, can travel roughly 1,200 miles, which makes it capable of reaching targets across the Middle East, according to Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.
How much do Iran’s drones cost?
Built with off-the-shelf commercial electronics, each Shahed is said to cost $20,000 to $50,000 to manufacture, depending on the model, Ms. Pettyjohn said.
Russia mass-produces a version of the Shahed for use against Ukraine. Iran may have manufactured many thousands of them.
How much does it cost to neutralize Iranian drones?
The gold standard in missile defense, the Patriot air defense system, uses interceptors that can cost more than $3 million per shot and are in limited supply. For instance, Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, which broke a record for production.
“We have pushed every counter-U.A.S. system forward, sparing no expense,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press briefing on Wednesday, an acknowledgment of the punishing math behind successful interception.
Are there less expensive ways to counter Iran’s attacks?
The American military also uses less expensive forms of counterdrone technology. The Raytheon Coyote system, which launches drones that hunt and destroy other drones, is estimated to cost $126,500 per interceptor, according to a report by the Center for a New American Security. That’s much less expensive than a PAC-3, but still several times as expensive as a Shahed.
“They are trying to use the cheapest bullet they can to do the job they need it to do,” Riki Ellison, chairman and founder at Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, said of the American military.
There are a host of other systems that can disorient or disable drones, including equipment that jams the radio frequencies that control navigation systems and those that use microwaves or lasers to disable drones or send them off course. Such counterdrone systems are far more affordable than interceptors, but they have a mixed track record of success or are extremely disruptive to civilian life.
