ISLAMABAD: The Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) has warned that India’s “new normal” narrative is destabilising for nuclear-armed South Asia, cautioning that New Delhi’s posture risks triggering serious escalation in future crises.
The assessment came during a CISS dialogue with Australian scholars and officials on “Evolving Regional Security Dynamics: Converging Pakistan-Australia Strategic Interests,” held here Sunday. The CISS delegates argued that India’s narrative of a “new normal” seeks to normalise escalatory behaviour and justify unilateral military strikes under the guise of counter-terrorism. India’s “new normal” narrative, which has been central to its security doctrine since 2019 and reasserted this year, marks a shift towards conventional military responses such as so-called Operation Sindoor after alleged terrorist attacks it claimed to have originated from outside its borders. The approach signals that India will not be constrained by Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent while using military options, directly challenging South Asia’s long-standing nuclear balance.
The delegates said New Delhi was leveraging its expanding conventional edge and pursuing limited war strategies under the nuclear overhang, raising the risk of miscalculation. The host country’s scholars also questioned the logic of India blaming Pakistan for every violent incident, despite facing more than two dozen active separatist and insurgent movements within its own territory. Using such allegations as a pretext for cross-border strikes, they argued, undermines crisis stability.
The delegation maintained that the true “new normal” was defined by Pakistan’s “Full Spectrum Deterrence”, which it said continued to restrain India’s war-fighting doctrines. Pakistan, they noted, would be prepared to deliver a “Quid Pro Quo Plus” response to any future Indian military action, as seen during the May 2025 conflict.
The CISS contended that Western support for India’s military modernisation rests on a flawed assumption that New Delhi will serve primarily as a counterweight to China. In reality, they argued, India’s enhanced military and nuclear capabilities remain largely directed towards Pakistan, with significant implications for South Asian stability. The discussion also examined how trilateral security partnership between Australia, UK, and US (AUKUS) and the “Quad” could have ripple effects for regional security.
Australian experts at the dialogue outlined their country’s rationale for participating in alliances such as AUKUS and the Quad, citing evolving geopolitical competition and the need for greater defence preparedness. They said Australia’s engagement reflects long-term national security priorities in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific.
The Australian delegation stressed that AUKUS remains a strictly trilateral partnership involving Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, and that there are no plans for expansion. While policy debates occasionally reference possible future members such as Norway, South Korea, Canada or India, they said, such prospects remain limited. They also emphasised that AUKUS adheres to rigorous nonproliferation standards fully aligned with IAEA safeguards.
The participants included Justin Burke, senior policy adviser at the Australian National University’s National Security College; Mike Hughes, Director of the Defence Strategy Programme at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; officials from the Australian High Commission in Islamabad; and from CISS, Ambassador Syed Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Executive Director; Dr Bilal Zubair, Director Research; and Anum A. Khan, Associate Director Research.
