ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 6.1 per cent in November 2025 from a one-year high of 6.2 per cent in October 2025, but stayed above the 4.9 per cent recorded in the same month last year. A sharper drop in core inflation has revived hopes of a policy rate cut after the central bank’s recent pause for forth time.
Average inflation for the first five months of FY26 (July-November) stood at 5.01 per cent, sharply lower than 7.88 per cent in the same period last year, pointing to a broader easing in price pressures.
During November, food inflation slowed slightly to 5.5 per cent from 5.6 per cent, led by a sharper fall in perishable food prices, which dropped 3.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY). But the benefit was partly erased as non-perishable food inflation picked up to 7.3 per cent from 6.3 per cent.
Price pressures also eased in several consumer categories. Inflation fell for clothing and footwear to 6.5 per cent from 8.1 per cent. Furnishing and household maintenance slowed to 3.5 per cent from 4.0 per cent. Health costs softened to 8.3 per cent from 9.7 per cent. Restaurant and hotel inflation eased to 5.3 per cent from 6.1 per cent.
Recreation and culture stayed in deflation, with prices down 4.1 per cent, deeper than the 3.7 per cent decline in October. Housing and utilities moved the other way. Inflation in the category accelerated to 5.3 per cent from 4.2 per cent, driven by higher energy and maintenance costs.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4 per cent in November, a sharp slowdown after a 1.8 per cent jump in October.The urban inflation rate inched up to 6.1 per cent from 6.0 per cent. Rural inflation eased to 6.3 per cent from 6.6 per cent.
The sharpest signal came from core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Urban core inflation came down to 6.6 per cent YoY from 7.5 per cent in October, and 8.9 per cent in November 2024. Rural core inflation down to 8.2 per cent in November 2025 from 8.4 per cent in previous month of October, and 10.9 per cent in November 2024, highlighting some ease in price pressures.
Core inflation was at highest 20 per cent in May of 2023, when CPI inflation was also at historic high 38 per cent and state bank’s discount rate was also at highest 22 per cent. Now, the cooling core trend strengthens the case for monetary easing ahead, after the State Bank of Pakistan held its policy rate at 11 per cent on October 27 for the fourth straight meeting, citing inflation risks and a fragile recovery.
Wholesale inflation stayed muted. The Wholesale Price Index stood at 1.1 per cent in November, sharply lower than the 2.3 per cent increase a year earlier.On a YoY basis, sugar prices surged 38.9 per cent, followed by butter at 26.4 per cent, fresh fruits 22 per cent, wheat 21.4 per cent, gur 15.2 per cent, wheat flour 14.3 per cent, meat 10.3 per cent, condiments and spices 8.98 per cent, cooking oil 8.7 per cent and vegetable ghee 8.2 per cent. Prices fell for gram pulse by 29.8 per cent, besan 26 per cent, potatoes 21.7 per cent, gram whole 18.2 per cent, tea 17.75 per cent, mash pulse 16.4 per cent, tomatoes 16.3 per cent and beans price reduced by 8.73 per cent over the same month a year ago.
In the non-food segment, gas charges jumped 22.9 per cent, newspapers 11.9 per cent, postal services 10.9 per cent, medical tests 10.7 per cent, transport services 9.1 per cent and solid fuel 8.66 per cent, while prices of textbooks dropped 10.6 per cent, liquefied hydrocarbons 10 per cent and electricity charges 9.4 per cent.
