LAHORE: While it is true that when inflation eases households get some relief, in Pakistan the problem is that essential goods (food, energy, transport and medicines) have already seen sharp increases in the last few years.
Even if inflation slows down, it only means prices are not rising as fast — not that they are returning to previous levels. For ordinary people, the cost of living is still much higher than before. Rising unemployment offsets the benefit of easing inflation. If people do not have steady income, they cannot take advantage of stabilised prices.
In Pakistan’s case, employment creation has lagged behind population growth, and sectors like construction, retail trade, and manufacturing are either stagnant or shrinking, worsening job insecurity. Whether people “flare up” depends less on economic statistics and more on daily affordability.
If households feel they cannot feed or educate their children properly, or if joblessness spreads among youth, frustration builds quickly. On the other hand, if the government clearly communicates that relief will come gradually and couples it with visible small wins (like subsidies on basic food, utility bill relief for low-income households or targeted employment programmes), people may show patience.
In Pakistan, expectations management is crucial. If the government sets realistic timelines — acknowledging that good times will take time — and shows fairness in burden-sharing (elite taxation, cutting perks for privileged groups), people may restrain from unrest.
But if unemployment continues rising while inflation relief is barely felt at the household level, the risk of public agitation, protests and political instability cannot be ruled out.The easing of inflation alone will not prevent flare-ups. For the people to believe that better times are coming, job creation, credible communication, and fairness in policy measures are essential. Otherwise, unemployment will overshadow the relief from lower inflation.
Inflation in Pakistan has eased in recent months, offering a glimmer of relief to consumers who have endured several years of relentless price hikes. However, the reality on the ground is more complex. While official figures show a downward trend in inflation, most essential goods — from wheat flour to cooking oil, transport fares to medicines — had already jumped to historically high levels in the recent past. For the average household, this means that stabilisation in prices does not feel like real relief, since the base cost of living remains painfully elevated.
Adding to the pressure is the rising tide of unemployment. Factories in the textile and engineering sectors continue to cut back due to reduced orders, small traders are squeezed by weak consumer demand, and the construction slowdown has left thousands of daily wagers without income. Even graduates find themselves struggling to secure stable jobs, feeding into an atmosphere of anxiety. This mismatch between inflation cooling and employment shrinking is what makes the current economic moment particularly challenging.
Public patience, therefore, hinges not only on economic indicators but also on perception and expectations. If people believe that their sacrifices will eventually translate into stability, they may endure hardships. However, if joblessness keeps climbing and wages fail to match even the slower inflation, frustration could spill onto the streets. Pakistan has seen this pattern before: food and energy shortages in the past have triggered spontaneous protests, even when governments insisted that “better days are around the corner.”
To avoid flare-ups, the government needs to go beyond citing inflation numbers. Clear communication, visible small steps of relief — such as targeted subsidies on basic goods, prompt payment of public sector salaries and pensions, and special employment programs — can restore faith. At the same time, addressing perceptions of unfairness by taxing privileged groups and curbing elite perks could reassure citizens that the burden is being shared.
In the end, the question is not whether inflation comes down in statistical terms, but whether the ordinary citizen feels their life becoming more affordable and secure. Without credible signals of improvement, the risk remains that people will lose patience before the “good times” finally arrive.
