LAHORE: Twelve years ago, in 2013, experts warned that Pakistan’s reliance on donor aid, monetary expansion and political indecision would block the path to sustainable growth. Today, in 2025, those warnings read less like analysis and more like prophecy.
Back then, economists warned that such policies would weaken financial markets, fuel inflation and ultimately hurt both the rich and the poor. In 2025, inflationary shocks, recurring circular debt, and a fragile rupee remain central features of Pakistan’s economic landscape — evidence that the fundamental mistakes were never corrected.
Similarly, bankers urged the government to boost exports, rebuild reserves and push forward transparent privatisation of loss-making public enterprises. Instead, privatisation stalled, reserves repeatedly collapsed, and Pakistan returned to the IMF and friendly countries for high-interest emergency loans over and over. The same state-owned enterprises continue to bleed billions every year, draining fiscal space that could have gone to development or social protection.
The social cost, flagged by then also deepened. Experts warned that unemployment was “tragic” not just for the economy but for the emotional and personal toll on families with no social safety nets. In 2025, joblessness is compounded by automation pressures, energy shortages and a stagnant investment climate. The youth, a majority of the Pakistani population, find themselves locked out of opportunities, fuelling frustration and outmigration.
The call to prioritise industries in energy allocation was ignored. To this day, power and gas shortages routinely shut down factories while households consume subsidized energy. The result is fewer exports, more imports, and worsening deficits. The burden eventually falls back on the same households who are struggling with rising tariffs.
Even the suggestion of innovative labour-sharing, cutting shifts instead of mass layoffs, remains relevant in today’s environment of layoffs in both manufacturing and services. Pakistan still lacks serious labour reforms or protection systems, leaving workers to bear the brunt of economic mismanagement.
The thread that links 2013 and 2025 is clear: Pakistan has not lacked for diagnoses or donor bailouts. What it has lacked is political will. Governments have repeatedly opted for short-term fixes, printing money, borrowing heavily or offering subsidies, rather than pursuing reforms that are painful in the short run but essential for long-term stability.
Today’s challenges, debt repayment pressures, trade deficits, shrinking fiscal space and eroding investor confidence, are not new. They are the compounded results of choices postponed over a decade. Unless Pakistan breaks this cycle, the same warnings written in 2013 will still ring true in 2035.
The way forward is no secret we need fiscal discipline by broadening the tax base and cutting wasteful expenditures. Export-led growth through industrial competitiveness and energy prioritization for productive sectors. Transparent privatisation of loss-making state enterprises. Social protection and labour reforms that cushion workers while enabling industries to remain competitive. Stable and predictable policies to restore investor confidence.
Donor aid may plug temporary holes, but it cannot replace political courage. The choice before Pakistan in 2025 is the same as it was in 2013: reform now or relive crisis after crisis.
