he transition between 2024 and 2026 from shadow warfare to open confrontation between Iran on one hand and Israel and the United States on the other marks a profound rupture in contemporary geopolitics, transforming what had long been a controlled and deniable conflict into a direct and system-shaking war.

The February 2026 joint strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure, coming after the brief but intense June 2025 12-Day War, are not isolated. Rather, they signal a deep structural shift whose consequences extend far beyond West Asia. For the Global South, these developments are not a distant geopolitical drama but immediate warnings of systemic shocks—economic vulnerability, geopolitical marginalisation and intensifying internal fragility. In countries like Pakistan, the crisis is already unfolding as a multidimensional challenge that touches every layer of national life, from macroeconomic stability to domestic political cohesion.

The most immediate and visible consequence of this escalation is economic disruption, particularly through energy markets, where the surge in oil prices following the strikes has triggered inflationary pressures across import-dependent economies. The strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz—through which a substantial portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows—has amplified uncertainty, with disruptions, blockades and the threat of closure sending shockwaves through global supply chains.

For much of the Global South, this translates into sharply rising fuel import bills, weakening currencies, increased costs of transportation and electricity and growing fiscal stress as governments struggle to shield populations from price shocks.

These pressures are compounded by disruptions in fertiliser supply. The Gulf region’s centrality to ammonia production means that any interruption directly affects agricultural productivity worldwide. The result is a looming food security crisis, particularly for agrarian economies already grappling with climate stress, where reduced crop yields and rising food prices deepen vulnerability and increase dependence on volatile global markets.

Equally critical is the fragility of remittance flows, a less visible but vital pillar of many Global South economies. Millions of workers from South Asia and Africa are employed in Gulf countries. As instability spreads across key economies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, job insecurity threatens to disrupt these financial lifelines.

For Pakistan, remittances are not merely household income but a cornerstone of macroeconomic stability, supporting foreign exchange reserves and cushioning balance-of-payments pressures. A sustained disruption in these flows could significantly exacerbate the country’s economic challenges.

Pakistan’s position in this unfolding crisis is particularly precarious due to its geographic proximity to Iran, its economic dependence on energy imports and its delicate diplomatic balancing act. Sharing a border with Iran, Pakistan faces immediate risks of security spillover, refugee movement and cross-border instability. Rising oil prices intensify inflationary pressures and widen trade deficits. The need to maintain subsidies strains already limited fiscal space.

Diplomatically, Pakistan has aligned itself with the broader Global South sentiment by condemning the strikes as illegitimate. It must simultaneously manage its relationships with the United States and key Gulf partners such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This has created a classic middle-power dilemma in which moral positioning and strategic necessity often pull in opposite directions. Internally, the convergence of inflation, political polarisation and institutional fragility raises the risk that external shocks could translate into domestic unrest, further complicating governance and stability.

The Global South will remain exposed to external shocks that it neither causes nor controls. The conflict is not only a moment of geopolitical upheaval but also a reminder of the urgent need to rethink and rebuild resilience in an increasingly volatile global order.

On a broader level, the conflict is accelerating a transformation in the global order that has exposed the structural weaknesses of the Global South. Many countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America have condemned the strikes as violations of sovereignty, reflecting both historical memories of colonial intervention and a growing distrust of Western-led security frameworks. Yet this political dissent exists alongside deep structural dependence on Western financial systems, energy supplies from the Gulf and global trade routes, creating a paradox in which states assert autonomy rhetorically while remaining materially constrained.

Rather than coalescing into a single bloc, the Global South appears increasingly fragmented, with some states aligning with the West and others gravitating toward China or attempting to maintain neutrality. This fragmentation undermines collective bargaining power and limits the ability of these countries to shape the outcomes of crises that disproportionately affect them.

The strategic community in India reflects this uncertainty. The intelligentsia is deeply divided over how to navigate the crisis. India’s close ties with Israel and the United States coexist uneasily with its heavy dependence on Middle Eastern energy, creating a complex strategic dilemma. Indian analysts frequently highlight the risks of supply disruptions, the vulnerability of maritime trade routes and the exposure of the large Indian Diaspora in the Gulf. At the same time, there is concern that an intensified US focus on West Asia could dilute attention from the Indo-Pacific, potentially marginalising India’s strategic priorities.

A dominant strand of thinking within Indian policy circles emphasises pragmatic multi-alignment, advocating that India avoid overt alignment in the conflict while diversifying energy sources and preserving strategic flexibility. The uncertainty surrounding projects such as Iran’s Chabahar port, central to India’s connectivity ambitions in Central Asia, further underscores how geopolitical instability can disrupt long-term strategic planning.

The repercussions of the conflict are not confined to its immediate participants. They are radiating outward, destabilising regions that were previously considered peripheral to the confrontation. Gulf countries such as Qatar and Kuwait, once viewed as relatively insulated, now face direct threats to their energy infrastructure and economic stability. In parts of Africa there are growing concerns that renewed flows of arms and resources could embolden militant networks and exacerbate existing conflicts. Across the Global South, rising energy and food prices are fuelling public discontent, increasing the likelihood of protests and political unrest and placing additional pressure on governments already struggling with limited legitimacy and capacity.

In this sense, the war in West Asia is not merely a regional conflict but a systemic stress test for the Global South, revealing the depth of its economic fragility, geopolitical vulnerability and internal instability. For Pakistan, these pressures converge in particularly acute ways, reinforcing one another and heightening the risk of crisis. More broadly, the unfolding situation serves as a stark warning that without meaningful diversification, stronger regional cooperation and greater strategic autonomy, the Global South will remain exposed to external shocks that it neither causes nor controls. The conflict is thus not only a moment of geopolitical upheaval but also a reminder of the urgent need to rethink and rebuild resilience in an increasingly volatile global order.

The writer is a professor in the Faculty of Liberal Arts at the Beaconhouse National University, Lahore.