Are we next? It’s a fair question for Pakistanis disturbed by the bombardment of Israel’s enemies.
Israel once attempted to destroy Pakistan’s nuclear programme and currently supplies 15 per cent of India’s arms imports. Recently, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and opposition leader Naftali Bennet warned of a radical Sunni axis including Turkiye and Pakistan, and Israel’s strikes on Doha have shown that even US allies are potential targets.
Most likely, our nuclear deterrent will keep us safe. But even without striking us, Israel has handicapped our economy and destabilised our region. A good time, then, to try and understand if Israel will remain a constant threat to Pakistan and its region, or if there is some hope that its trajectory will change.
First, let us examine Israel’s domestic situation. Modern Israeli politics offer no effective opposition to Israel’s two most globe-destabilising policies – military devastation of any country it deems a threat and the seizure of real estate for Jewish Israelis in Palestine, Syria and Lebanon. These policies currently sit at the dead centre of Israeli politics.
This will not change by voting out Netanyahu’s party. Around 90 per cent of parliament seats in the 2026 election are expected to go to Likud or to an opposition led by fellow right-winger Naftali Bennet, who supported the Iran war, and Yair Lapid, a ‘centrist’ whose policy on the 740,000 Jewish settlers is “maximum Jews on maximum land with maximum security and with minimum Palestinians”. Centrist, indeed.
The future of the Israeli peace movement is bleaker even than its present: Israel has the rare distinction of being a developed country whose Gen Z is more pro-military than its elders. Given the birthrate of Israel’s conservative religious population (6.6 births per woman), it is likely that a country where raping prisoners of war is a vehemently protected right is the most peace-loving version of Israel we will see for a generation.
Where then could external change to Israel’s aggression come from? Its enemies are too weak and too poor to threaten it in any fundamental way. Perhaps then, from Israel’s allies, America chief among them. Americans are now, for the first time in history, more likely to sympathise with Palestinians than Israelis. The potential impact of this should not be understated.
Despite efforts by Israel to diversify its alliances, it remains deeply dependent on American direct aid ($352 billion), weaponry (68 per cent of Israeli stockpiles), interceptors (half of all US interceptors were used up in the Iran-Israel war), the 50,000 American troops in the region, and wartime emergency deliveries of ammunition. America’s deal with the Houthis keeps Israel’s most important maritime trade route open and its diplomatic pressure maintains Israel’s sanction-free status. To quote an American official cited by the Washington Post in May, “Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own”.
That said, Israel’s new unpopularity in America may not affect American aid to it. Public opinion has been shown to have a statistically insignificant effect on American foreign policy. Furthermore, in the hope of smothering the issue, smarter Israel supporters will abandon loud, offensive weapons like AIPAC in favour of dark money, softer language and pressure from private citizens.
That said, sticking to a quieter influence operation like Qatar’s requires a less arrogant Israeli right, one that does not demand slavish obedience from American voters, universities, children’s entertainers and presidents. Given their total dominance over Israeli life, this is hard to imagine. Israel may have to turn to other allies.
After America, Europe is Israel’s most reliable partner. European armies crave battle-proven Israeli tech and weaponry to ward off Putin and surveil their increasingly extreme populations. Croatia, Serbia and Spain have loudly cancelled major Israeli arms fairs and deals – only to buy the same missiles from subsidiaries and joint Euro-Israeli ventures.
But some shoots of dissent appear: France and Israel’s defence agreements have been torn up and 12 European countries have signalled support for a Palestinian state. The young across Europe are highly negative on Israel and will only grow in political strength; Keir Starmer may remember the Intifadas, but his young voters know only the Gaza operation.
History teaches that a lasting change in the social fabric of a militarised, quasi-fascist state often requires military humiliation, but there is no state willing or able to defeat Israel militarily. Change will come in softer ways to Israel, through a slow buildup of embargoes and isolation. Its enemies have survived, in Lebanon and Yemen and Iran, and its allies’ numbers dwindle.
If the right in Israel continues to dominate Israel’s politics and global image, this much is for certain: Israel will keep fighting wars, but it will soon be fighting them all alone.
The writer works for Data Agro Limited, a seed hybridisation company based in Lahore and Khanewal. He can be reached at: [email protected]
