DUBAI: If the US-Israeli war on Iran ended tomorrow, one verdict is already clear: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would walk away stronger, while President Donald Trump would be left to manage the shock to global markets and to Gulf allies who have borne the heaviest costs.
For Netanyahu, analysts say, the war has redrawn Israel’s political map on his terms, pivoting attention away from Gaza and toward Iran, where national consensus is strongest and his security and economic credentials resonate most.
For Trump, it has done the reverse: trapping him in a conflict with no clear exit, exposing his Gulf Arab allies to spiralling risks, and undercutting the economic storyline that powered his return to office.
“There is a clear winner and a clear loser,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator. “Netanyahu is by far the key winner. He has demonstrated Israel’s military competence. The Gulf states are by far the biggest losers.”
For Trump, Miller said, there is no off ramp that would allow him to declare victory and walk away.
Unlike in Washington, the war against Iran is widely seen in Israel not as a war of choice but as a war of necessity, said Natan Sacks, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “Even if regime change doesn’t happen,” Sacks said, “weakening Iran and the (militia) axis it leads is a huge goal for Netanyahu.”
Israeli officials say the air war has been broadly divided, with Israel focusing on western and northern Iran, attacking ballistic missile and nuclear sites, while the U.S. concentrates on the east and south, including the Strait of Hormuz, to weaken Iran’s naval capabilities.
“The common threat they (Gulf Arab states) now perceive is nothing short of the future security and stability of the Gulf,” said Miller, also a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The notion that the Gulf represents the future of the region is now at stake—and with it, the Gulf’s vision for itself.” Analysts say Israel may be more willing than the United States to tolerate instability in Iran, calculating it would face far less regional fallout, especially after the weakening of its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah over the past three years. Assaf Orion, a former head of strategy with the Israeli military, said regional states were questioning whether Israel is seeking chaos in Iran, adding that Israel would be less affected by such instability than its neighbors or Washington.
