LAHORE: The Federal Ministry of National Food Security and Research has decided against allowing sugar exports this year due to the potential domestic supply concerns.
Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain has indicated that there will be no surplus available for export during the ongoing commodity marketing year.
Echoing concerns about possible shortage of sugar, a prominent member of the sugar industry warns, “If exports are permitted, prices will rise dramatically again,” reflecting concerns that the industry is prioritizing short-term export profits over the needs of local consumers.
More importantly, market insiders pointed out that the monthly sugar lifting averages rose to 0.591 million tons per month in 2025 2026 (4 month average) from 0.551 million tons per month in 2024 2025, with a projected 12 month total of 7.094 million tons for 2025 2026. Even without factoring in strategic reserves, the higher lifting of sugar in the ongoing season may further exacerbate imbalance in supply and demand of politically-sensitive commodity. This trend of rising lifting of sugar should be checked, said an insider.
Keeping in view the emerging 2026 sugar outlook scenario, critics contend that the industry’s push for exports is risking the country’s supply stability for greater profits in the global market.
It may be noted that the sugar industry floated the proposal for export of around one million tons of sugar, citing a total production of 7.21 million tons till March 15, 2026. According to the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA), sugar production is anticipated to reach 7.5 million tons by the end of the season, which would create a surplus of one million tons over domestic requirement.
However, market insiders caution that the food security situation in the country is fragile, with total physical stock recorded at 5.002 million tons as of mid-March. The annual domestic demand stands at 6.5 million tons, and with an estimated monthly sugar consumption of 0.541 million tons, the country needs approximately 4.33 million tons to satisfy basic domestic requirements from March to November (over 8 months). When factoring in the mandatory strategic reserve of 0.7 million tons and 0.3 million tons for supply chain absorption, the total necessary stock amounts to 5.33 million tons. This leaves the nation facing a projected deficit of over 0.330 million tons in 2026.
