WASHINGTON: The president told his White House team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait, the world’s most vital shipping lane, US media reported.
Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.
Now, two weeks into the war, Iran’s leaders have refused to back down, and the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as Tehran’s most potent leverage point. Iran has blocked tankers from the strait and struck cargo ships, triggering a surge in oil prices and an energy shock rippling around the world. U.S. forces are targeting Iran’s mine-laying ships and factories, trying to prevent the country from lining the waterway with explosives.
The U.S. operation is costing billions of dollars a week. More broadly, the growing risk of a widening and drawn-out war threatens the American economy, raising warnings of stagflation, a quagmire of stagnant growth and high inflation.
Behind Trump’s rationale for war was a deep confidence in the capabilities of the U.S. military to deliver a swift, decisive victory, according to administration officials and others familiar with the matter. The president’s trust in Caine was buoyed by the successful U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last year and the January raid that captured Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro.
The White House said Trump understood the risks of launching the war, but was determined to eliminate the national security threat posed by Iran. Before the president approved the operation, he and his advisers discussed options to force the reopening of the strait and use the U.S. Navy to escort tankers through the waterway, the people said.
With the strait nearly closed, the Pentagon is now concerned that any American warships escorting tankers through the strait would be targets unless the U.S. destroys Iranian vessels and coastal defense weapons, including drones and missiles.
The possible closure of the strait was one of several scenarios Caine and other advisers outlined for Trump in the run-up to the war. Caine also expressed confidence the U.S. military could hobble Iran’s navy and missile arsenal, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, as well as further reduce its capability to build and deploy a nuclear weapon.
Caine provided the president with “a full spectrum of military options, along with precise and thoughtful consideration of the secondary effects, implications and risks associated with each option,” said Joe Holstead, Caine’s spokesman.
“The Pentagon has been planning for Iran’s desperate and reckless closure of the Strait of Hormuz for decades, and it has been part of the Trump administration’s planning well before Operation Epic Fury was ever launched,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
The U.S. operation to wipe out Iran’s military capability “is quite literally intended to deprive them of their ability to close the Strait,” Leavitt said.
Some of Trump’s outside advisers are urging him to find an exit ramp, but the president has no plans to immediately end the war, aides and officials said, instead pushing to continue strikes on Iran’s military and proxy forces. That contrasts with Trump’s public statements that the mission has largely been accomplished. “We’ve won,” he told a crowd in Kentucky on Wednesday.
U.S. military officials said the conflict would likely last a few more weeks, at least. Trump announced Friday evening that the U.S. bombed military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, intending to pressure Tehran into reopening the strait. The island is where Iran exports 90% of its crude oil, but the attack spared oil infrastructure “for reasons of decency,” he said on social media.
“However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said, “I will immediately reconsider this decision.”
The president’s critics say the closure of the strait and the resulting economic turmoil reflect a lack of planning and thoughtful consideration in the weeks before the war.
“They had no plan to address the crisis in the strait,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D., Conn.), who joined a classified briefing Tuesday with administration officials about the operation. “The fact that these guys didn’t have a plan ahead of time, and a week into the war still didn’t have a plan, was pretty shocking.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Friday that Iran’s decision to block the strait was a sign of “sheer desperation,” adding “we have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.”
Typically, war preparations include weeks or months of classified deliberations, written planning documents, the airing of dissenting views from diplomats and intelligence officials, and National Security Council meetings with cabinet members to make the most informed decision.
Only a small group was looped into the preparations for Iran—including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hegseth. That narrowed the advice, information and ideas available to the president, who had to balance the many downsides of an attack.
