The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. According to CFR’s annual conflict risk assessment, American foreign policy experts are acutely concerned about conflict-related threats to U.S. national security and international stability that are likely to emerge or intensify in 2026. In this report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts by their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests and, for the first time, identify opportunities for preventive action.
For the past eighteen years, the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) has surveyed American foreign policy experts to assess the risk posed to U.S. national interests by ongoing and emerging sources of armed conflict around the world.
U.S. foreign policy experts rank the thirty global conflicts that could most significantly affect the United States in 2026.
The logic of this exercise is straightforward: U.S. policymakers often find themselves blindsided by conflict-related crises that divert attention and resources away from other priorities and even lead to major military interventions that cost American lives. Those involved frequently lament afterward that officials should have done more to avert or prepare for these crises. Thus, the purpose of the Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) is not just to alert busy U.S. policymakers to incipient sources of instability over the next twelve months but also to help them decide which are most pressing.
The second Trump administration has sought to end many ongoing conflicts, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, and Ukraine, as well as between India and Pakistan and Cambodia and Thailand. At the same time, however, it has engaged in unnecessarily destabilizing behavior, specifically threatening force and other coercive measures against several countries, including allies, notably in the Western Hemisphere. Regrettably, it has also systematically dismantled the very elements of the U.S. government dedicated to strategic foresight, conflict prevention, and peace-building without replacing them with anything better. Related funding has been slashed in the process. Those actions are both counterproductive and shortsighted.
High Likelihood; High Impact
Increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank over Israeli settlement construction, Palestinian political rights, and the war in Gaza
Renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip, triggered by increasing clashes between Hamas militants and Israeli security forces, deepens the humanitarian crisis and exacerbates regional instability
An intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, caused by expanding attacks on each side’s critical infrastructure and population centers
U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups escalate to direct strikes in Venezuela, destabilizing the Maduro government
Growing political violence and popular unrest in the United States, exacerbated by heightened political antagonism and domestic security deployments
Map of the levant region in the middle east showing possible conflicts in 2026
Moderate Likelihood; High Impact
Renewed armed conflict between Iran and Israel, caused by Iranian efforts to reconstitute its nuclear program and rebuild its regional network of anti-Israel proxy groups
A state or nonstate entity undertakes a highly disruptive, artificial intelligence–enabled cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure
Intensified military, economic, and political pressure by China on Taiwan precipitates a severe cross-strait crisis involving other countries in the region and the United States
Armed clashes between Russia and one or more NATO member countries, precipitated by increasing Russian provocations toward European states
A resumption of North Korean nuclear weapons tests heightens tensions on the Korean Peninsula, triggering an armed confrontation involving other regional powers and the United States
Tier II
High Likelihood; Low Impact
An escalation of the civil war in Sudan leads to further mass atrocities, civilian displacement, and spillover violence in neighboring countries
Violent clashes between armed groups and security forces escalate in Haiti, aggravated by political dysfunction and the failure of international stabilization efforts
Further election delays in South Sudan trigger renewed fighting between armed ethnic and political factions, destabilizing the central government
Civil War in Sudan
Conflict in Yemen
India and Pakistan
Moderate Likelihood; Moderate Impact
The withdrawal of U.S. security assistance from Somalia leads to increased terrorist attacks and expanded territorial control by Al-Shabaab and ISIS
Houthi attacks on Israel and international shipping provoke retaliatory actions that further degrade state capacity and deepen the humanitarian crisis in Yemen
Failed efforts to disarm Hezbollah and continued Israeli military strikes in Lebanon destabilize the central government and ignite a wider sectarian conflict
Growing sectarian violence and a resurgence of ISIS in Syria, exacerbated by Israeli and Turkish military interventions, weaken the central government and accelerate state fragmentation
Renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity and repression in Indian-administered Kashmir
Low Likelihood; High Impact
Heightened concerns in the United States over illicit drug production and trafficking by transnational criminal groups lead to direct U.S. military strikes in Mexico
Aggressive Chinese actions in the South China Sea, especially toward the Philippines, lead to an armed confrontation involving China, the United States, and U.S. allies
A man adds a tire to a burning barricade during a protest against insecurity in the Pétion-Ville neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on April 2, 2025. Fildor Pq Egeder/Reuters
A member of the M23 group carries weapons during an enrollment of civilians, police officers, and former members of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s armed forces in Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo, on February 22, 2025. Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images
Tier III
Map of the Sub-Saharan region in the Africa showing possible conflicts in 2026
Moderate Likelihood; Low Impact
Growing insurgencies across the Sahel (especially in Mali) exacerbate regional instability and human suffering
Heightened Islamist terrorism and persistent state weakness in northeastern Nigeria increase nationwide insecurity and political instability
Ethnic and political conflict over territory and natural resources intensifies between the Democratic Republic of Congo and armed groups, including Rwanda-backed militias
Political and religious violence grows in Bangladesh, aggravated by the postponement of national elections and a worsening governance crisis
Intensified criminal activity and conflict between the military junta and armed groups in Myanmar accelerate state collapse and increase civilian displacement, further exacerbating regional tensions
Rising criminal violence and political repression in Ecuador increase civilian casualties and popular unrest
Armed clashes between the Ethiopian military and Eritrea-backed militias, aggravated by Ethiopia’s efforts to gain Red Sea port access, reignite war in the border region
The insurgency in northern Mozambique intensifies, causing widespread civilian casualties and accelerating displacement
Renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks
Political unrest and strengthening insurgencies in northern and western Cameroon destabilize the central government and lead to wider civil conflict
Other Noted Concerns
Although the survey was limited to thirty contingencies, government officials and foreign policy experts had the opportunity to suggest additional potential crises that they believe warrant attention. The following additional contingencies were proposed by several survey respondents:
Increased Chinese and Russian military activities in the Arctic trigger an armed confrontation involving the United States or other NATO allies
Renewed hostilities over unresolved territorial claims between Armenia and Azerbaijan draw in Turkey and other regional powers
Resurgent border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand lead to a worsened refugee crisis and regional political instability
Tensions between China and Japan over the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, aggravated by disputes over the status of Taiwan, lead to armed clashes in the East China Sea
Growing armed group activity and political polarization in Colombia, compounded by instability and criminal violence in Venezuela, further derail Colombia’s peace process and lead to resurgent civil war
An increase in ethnic violence and political instability in the western Balkans triggers an armed confrontation necessitating foreign intervention
A Kashmiri resident reacts to his damaged house following cross-border shelling in Salamabad, a village near the Line of Control in Uri, Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir
A Kashmiri resident reacts to his damaged house following cross-border shelling in Salamabad, a village near the Line of Control in Uri, Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, on May 8, 2025. Faisal Bashir/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Last year’s unprecedented level of anxiety about the rising risk of violent conflict in the world remains undiminished.
Last year’s unprecedented level of anxiety about the rising risk of violent conflict in the world remains undiminished. Once more, five contingencies are rated as high-likelihood, high-impact events. Also, of the thirty contingencies surveyed, twenty-eight were again judged to be either highly or moderately likely to occur in the next twelve months. Seventeen of the contingencies, moreover, would have a high or moderate impact on U.S. interests, according to survey respondents.
This year, the thirty contingencies are spread evenly across the three tiers of relative priority. Although much of the world is represented in the 2026 PPS, the Middle East continues to figure prominently in the top-ranked concerns. Six Middle Eastern conflicts are rated as either Tier I or Tier II priorities, with each involving Israel to some degree. However, the largest number of contingencies (nine) involve African countries. Although six of them are assessed to be Tier III priorities, the risk of escalating war in Sudan was judged as the most likely to occur in 2026 among all the PPS contingencies surveyed.
While several 2025 Tier I contingencies remain comparably ranked in 2026 (Gaza, Ukraine, Iran-Israel, and a cyberattack on the United States), one rose in the rankings to Tier I (North Korea) whereas four fell to Tier II (Haiti, Lebanon, Mexico, and the South China Sea). Notably, the possibility of growing political violence and popular unrest in the United States—the leading risk in the 2024 survey—is once again a high-likelihood, high-impact contingency after being rated as moderately likely to occur in the 2025 PPS.
As has been true for the last several years, the risk of great power war persists. This year, contingencies such as a crisis in the Taiwan Strait and Russia-NATO clashes are given an even chance of occurring in 2026 and are rated as high impact due to their potential to draw the United States into a direct military conflict with China or Russia. The risk of a conflict in the South China Sea carries similar potential risk but was rated as having a low likelihood for 2026.
