Independence Day invites gratitude for the country we inherited and responsibility for the country we will leave behind. As the country turns 79, I remain convinced that its future can be brighter than its present. This confidence rests on forces already visible across the economy and society, and on choices still available to us.
At 70, and again at 75, I described Pakistan’s future in these very pages through ‘megatrends’ and ‘game changers’. Megatrends are forces already underway. Game changers are the decisions and events that determine whether those forces improve lives or deepen existing problems. Nine years after I made my first assessment, several trends have matured. They provide five reasons for optimism.
The starting point requires honesty. Official poverty rose to 28.9 per cent in 2024-25. Twenty-eight per cent of children aged five to 16 remain out of school. Female labour force participation stays below 23 per cent. Goods exports and foreign investment weakened during 2025-26. Terrorism claimed 1,139 lives in 2025. The last two floods displaced millions of people and caused losses worth billions of rupees. These figures explain public frustration. However, they also identify where better choices can produce large gains.
Take the recent economic stabilisation. It has restored some room for choice. GDP grew by 3.7 per cent in 2025-26, while large-scale manufacturing expanded by 5.8 per cent. Remittances reached a record $41.6 billion. The current account remained close to balance, and foreign exchange reserves rose to $22.7 billion by mid-July. Pakistan has moved away from the immediate threat of default that overshadowed 2023.
This stability gives policymakers time to address deeper weaknesses. Its value depends on what Pakistan builds upon it. The game changer will be policies aimed at attracting investment, boosting exports and enhancing productivity. The government must broaden the base of direct taxation and reduce energy and logistics costs for competitive firms.
The second reason is the rapid spread of digital access. Household internet access has reached 70 per cent. IT exports increased by more than 20 per cent to $4.6 billion. Pakistani freelancers, software firms and young entrepreneurs now sell services in markets that once required migration, large capital or a foreign office.
Artificial intelligence can widen this opening. It can help teachers prepare lessons. It can enable farmers to use water more efficiently. Data triangulation can support informed policymaking, such as electricity companies detecting losses and revenue collectors identifying tax evaders.
The third reason lies in Pakistan’s people, including those living abroad. Overseas Pakistanis support millions of families and provide the country’s largest source of foreign exchange. From unskilled workers in Gulf countries to highly qualified Doctors, engineers, academics, and other skilled workers have accumulated knowledge, capital and networks across the Gulf, North America, Europe and East Asia.
Pakistan has mostly treated its diaspora as a source of dollars during financing shortages. The next game changer is to involve it in production. Banks can create transparent co-investment channels for exporters and start-ups. Universities can build joint programmes with Pakistani academics abroad. The government can also make its schemes like the Roshan Digital Account more attractive.
The fourth reason is the energy transition taking place on rooftops, farms and factory premises. Net metering capacity has crossed 7,300MW. Hydel, nuclear and renewable sources supplied more than half of electricity generation during the first nine months of 2025-26. Households and firms adopted solar power rapidly because it reduced bills and gave them greater control over supply.
This transition can lower exposure to imported fuel, improve industrial competitiveness and bring power to underserved communities. Policy must integrate solar with storage, modern transmission and time-based tariffs. It must protect families that cannot buy panels and are left carrying a rising share of grid costs. The game changer is the productive use of cleaner power for small factories, digital businesses and public services.
The fifth reason is Pakistan’s renewed geopolitical relevance. Marka-e-Haq reaffirmed its capacity to defend its territory. Pakistan’s commendable role to ease US-Iran conflict from escalation reveals its major strength that lies in its equally good relations with China, US, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkiye and other Gulf partners.
The five factors reinforce one another. Stability gives investors time. Digital access connects talent to markets. The diaspora supplies networks and capital. Cleaner energy lowers costs. Diplomacy opens doors. Governance remains the game changer across them. Consistent rules, political stability, capable institutions and investment in people will determine how much value Pakistan draws from these strengths.
Pakistan was created amid predictions that it would not survive. Its people repeatedly proved those predictions wrong. But survival need not remain our highest ambition. The resilience that preserved the country should define the Pakistan that we want to leave for our youth. Using the aforementioned five factors, we can build a Pakistan where a child can learn, a farmer can withstand a climate shock, and a small firm can become an exporter.
The country enters its 80th year with serious burdens. However, more connected citizens, more technological tools powered by cleaner power sources and wider diplomatic options are solid reasons to believe that the Pakistan of tomorrow can offer its people more than the Pakistan of today.
The writer heads SDPI, chairs the board of the National Disaster Risk Management Fund, and serves on the ADBI’s Advisory Board. He posts on LinkedIn @Abidsuleri
