GENEVA: The El Nino weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected to return in mid-2026, the UN said on Friday.
The United Nations´ weather and climate agency said El Nino conditions could well develop as early as May to July.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) meanwhile said early signs indicated a particularly strong event. El Nino is a naturally-occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year... there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification,” said Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, the WMO´s climate prediction chief.
El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. The WMO said in its latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update that sea surface temperatures are rising rapidly in the equatorial Pacific, “pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May-July.”
Forecasts indicate a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the next three months. “There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events,” the Geneva-based WMO said. “But it can amplify associated impacts.”
