LAHORE: The cotton sector in Punjab presents a complex landscape, characterised by a decline in majority districts in factory arrivals. The latest data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) reveals an overall provincial decline of 74,030 bales, marking a 2.74 per cent reduction compared to the same period last year.
The net decrease masks a much more volatile situation on the ground. It shows that the downturn is driven by severe contractions in 11 of the province’s 21 districts, where substantial shortfalls have outweighed the production gains recorded in other regions.
As of January 31, the most alarming contraction occurred in the district of Lodhran, where cotton arrivals plummeted by 46,810 bales. This represents a staggering 75.04 per cent reduction from the previous year, signalling a major localised crisis for farmers and ginners. Similarly, Muzaffargarh saw its arrivals cut by more than half, recording a decrease of 35,845 bales, or 52.49 per cent.
Other producing regions in South Punjab also faced significant setbacks; arrivals in Sahiwal dropped by 25.95 per cent, while Bahawalpur and Khanewal saw declines of 7.94 per cent and 12.56 per cent, respectively. The most striking data point comes from the district of Bhakkar, which recorded a total shortfall of 100 per cent, with arrivals falling from 14,100 bales last year to zero in the current season.
In Multan, arrivals fell by 28 per cent, while Mianwali and Rahim Yar Khan recorded losses of 17.86 per cent and 5.99 per cent, respectively. Smaller production centres such as Toba Tek Singh and Faisalabad also faced notable contractions.
Industry analysts suggest that these concentrated shortfalls, particularly in the traditional cotton belt of South Punjab, are likely the result of localised challenges. These include unpredictable climatic conditions during the peak growing months, shifts in crop patterns where farmers are moving toward more stable crops, and persistent pest issues that have historically plagued these specific regions. Collectively, these districts have exerted downward pressure on Punjab’s total output, necessitating a closer look at agricultural resilience strategies. The uneven nature of the 2026 season underscores the need for targeted support in districts like Lodhran, Muzaffargarh, Multan and Bhakkar.
Despite these widespread challenges, the overall provincial decline was significantly mitigated by exceptional performances in a few key districts. Dera Ghazi Khan emerged as a major success story, reporting a substantial increase of 96,758 bales, reflecting a growth of nearly 40 per cent. Even more impressive was Rajanpur, which witnessed a remarkable 107.42 per cent surge in arrivals, adding 17,610 bales to the provincial total. These robust gains, complemented by positive trends in Bahawalnagar, Vehari and Jhang, served as a vital cushion against the severe losses recorded elsewhere.
As per the PCGA fortnightly report, total cotton arrivals at ginning factories across Pakistan reached 5.545 million bales, representing a marginal increase of 0.62 per cent compared to the 5.511 million bales recorded during the same period last year.
As reflected in earlier district-wise analysis, province-wise arrivals in Punjab stood at 2.63 million bales, showing a decline of 2.74 per cent from the previous year’s 2.704 million bales. In contrast, Sindh received 2.915 million bales, marking a 3.86 per cent increase over the 2.806 million bales received in the corresponding period last year.
At the national level, Sanghar district located in Sindh leads the country with a record 1.287 million bales. In Punjab, the highest arrivals were reported in Bahawalnagar at 0.735 million bales and Bahawalpur at 0.411 million bales.
